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Actionable absolute risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease based on the UK Biobank

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the primary cause of all death globally. Timely and accurate identification of people at risk of developing an atherosclerotic CVD and its sequelae is a central pillar of preventive cardiology. One widely used approach is risk prediction models; however, currently...

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Autores principales: Kesar, Ajay, Baluch, Adel, Barber, Omer, Hoffmann, Henry, Jovanovic, Milan, Renz, Daniel, Stopak, Bernard Leon, Wicks, Paul, Gilbert, Stephen
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8836294/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35148360
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263940
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author Kesar, Ajay
Baluch, Adel
Barber, Omer
Hoffmann, Henry
Jovanovic, Milan
Renz, Daniel
Stopak, Bernard Leon
Wicks, Paul
Gilbert, Stephen
author_facet Kesar, Ajay
Baluch, Adel
Barber, Omer
Hoffmann, Henry
Jovanovic, Milan
Renz, Daniel
Stopak, Bernard Leon
Wicks, Paul
Gilbert, Stephen
author_sort Kesar, Ajay
collection PubMed
description Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the primary cause of all death globally. Timely and accurate identification of people at risk of developing an atherosclerotic CVD and its sequelae is a central pillar of preventive cardiology. One widely used approach is risk prediction models; however, currently available models consider only a limited set of risk factors and outcomes, yield no actionable advice to individuals based on their holistic medical state and lifestyle, are often not interpretable, were built with small cohort sizes or are based on lifestyle data from the 1960s, e.g. the Framingham model. The risk of developing atherosclerotic CVDs is heavily lifestyle dependent, potentially making many occurrences preventable. Providing actionable and accurate risk prediction tools to the public could assist in atherosclerotic CVD prevention. Accordingly, we developed a benchmarking pipeline to find the best set of data preprocessing and algorithms to predict absolute 10-year atherosclerotic CVD risk. Based on the data of 464,547 UK Biobank participants without atherosclerotic CVD at baseline, we used a comprehensive set of 203 consolidated risk factors associated with atherosclerosis and its sequelae (e.g. heart failure). Our two best performing absolute atherosclerotic risk prediction models provided higher performance, (AUROC: 0.7573, 95% CI: 0.755–0.7595) and (AUROC: 0.7544, 95% CI: 0.7522–0.7567), than Framingham (AUROC: 0.680, 95% CI: 0.6775–0.6824) and QRisk3 (AUROC: 0.725, 95% CI: 0.7226–0.7273). Using a subset of 25 risk factors identified with feature selection, our reduced model achieves similar performance (AUROC 0.7415, 95% CI: 0.7392–0.7438) while being less complex. Further, it is interpretable, actionable and highly generalizable. The model could be incorporated into clinical practice and might allow continuous personalized predictions with automated intervention suggestions.
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spelling pubmed-88362942022-02-12 Actionable absolute risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease based on the UK Biobank Kesar, Ajay Baluch, Adel Barber, Omer Hoffmann, Henry Jovanovic, Milan Renz, Daniel Stopak, Bernard Leon Wicks, Paul Gilbert, Stephen PLoS One Research Article Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the primary cause of all death globally. Timely and accurate identification of people at risk of developing an atherosclerotic CVD and its sequelae is a central pillar of preventive cardiology. One widely used approach is risk prediction models; however, currently available models consider only a limited set of risk factors and outcomes, yield no actionable advice to individuals based on their holistic medical state and lifestyle, are often not interpretable, were built with small cohort sizes or are based on lifestyle data from the 1960s, e.g. the Framingham model. The risk of developing atherosclerotic CVDs is heavily lifestyle dependent, potentially making many occurrences preventable. Providing actionable and accurate risk prediction tools to the public could assist in atherosclerotic CVD prevention. Accordingly, we developed a benchmarking pipeline to find the best set of data preprocessing and algorithms to predict absolute 10-year atherosclerotic CVD risk. Based on the data of 464,547 UK Biobank participants without atherosclerotic CVD at baseline, we used a comprehensive set of 203 consolidated risk factors associated with atherosclerosis and its sequelae (e.g. heart failure). Our two best performing absolute atherosclerotic risk prediction models provided higher performance, (AUROC: 0.7573, 95% CI: 0.755–0.7595) and (AUROC: 0.7544, 95% CI: 0.7522–0.7567), than Framingham (AUROC: 0.680, 95% CI: 0.6775–0.6824) and QRisk3 (AUROC: 0.725, 95% CI: 0.7226–0.7273). Using a subset of 25 risk factors identified with feature selection, our reduced model achieves similar performance (AUROC 0.7415, 95% CI: 0.7392–0.7438) while being less complex. Further, it is interpretable, actionable and highly generalizable. The model could be incorporated into clinical practice and might allow continuous personalized predictions with automated intervention suggestions. Public Library of Science 2022-02-11 /pmc/articles/PMC8836294/ /pubmed/35148360 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263940 Text en © 2022 Kesar et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Kesar, Ajay
Baluch, Adel
Barber, Omer
Hoffmann, Henry
Jovanovic, Milan
Renz, Daniel
Stopak, Bernard Leon
Wicks, Paul
Gilbert, Stephen
Actionable absolute risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease based on the UK Biobank
title Actionable absolute risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease based on the UK Biobank
title_full Actionable absolute risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease based on the UK Biobank
title_fullStr Actionable absolute risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease based on the UK Biobank
title_full_unstemmed Actionable absolute risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease based on the UK Biobank
title_short Actionable absolute risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease based on the UK Biobank
title_sort actionable absolute risk prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease based on the uk biobank
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8836294/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35148360
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0263940
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