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Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class

In this paper, a nonlinear fractional-order chikungunya disease model that incorporates asymptomatic infectious individuals is proposed and analyzed. The main interest of this work is to investigate the role of memory effects on the dynamics of chikungunya. Qualitative analysis of the model's e...

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Autores principales: Helikumi, Mlyashimbi, Eustace, Gideon, Mushayabasa, Steady
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Hindawi 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8843779/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35178113
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/5118382
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author Helikumi, Mlyashimbi
Eustace, Gideon
Mushayabasa, Steady
author_facet Helikumi, Mlyashimbi
Eustace, Gideon
Mushayabasa, Steady
author_sort Helikumi, Mlyashimbi
collection PubMed
description In this paper, a nonlinear fractional-order chikungunya disease model that incorporates asymptomatic infectious individuals is proposed and analyzed. The main interest of this work is to investigate the role of memory effects on the dynamics of chikungunya. Qualitative analysis of the model's equilibria showed that there exists a threshold quantity which governs persistence and extinction of the disease. Model parameters were estimated based on the 2015 weekly reported cases in Colombia. The Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method was used to numerically solve the proposed model. We investigated the role of asymptomatic infectious patients on short- and long-term dynamics of the diseases. We also determined threshold levels for the efficacy of preventative strategies that results in effective management of the disease. We believe that our model can provide invaluable insights for public health authorities to predict the effect of chikungunya transmission and analyze its underlying factors and to guide new control efforts.
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spelling pubmed-88437792022-02-16 Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class Helikumi, Mlyashimbi Eustace, Gideon Mushayabasa, Steady Comput Math Methods Med Research Article In this paper, a nonlinear fractional-order chikungunya disease model that incorporates asymptomatic infectious individuals is proposed and analyzed. The main interest of this work is to investigate the role of memory effects on the dynamics of chikungunya. Qualitative analysis of the model's equilibria showed that there exists a threshold quantity which governs persistence and extinction of the disease. Model parameters were estimated based on the 2015 weekly reported cases in Colombia. The Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method was used to numerically solve the proposed model. We investigated the role of asymptomatic infectious patients on short- and long-term dynamics of the diseases. We also determined threshold levels for the efficacy of preventative strategies that results in effective management of the disease. We believe that our model can provide invaluable insights for public health authorities to predict the effect of chikungunya transmission and analyze its underlying factors and to guide new control efforts. Hindawi 2022-02-07 /pmc/articles/PMC8843779/ /pubmed/35178113 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/5118382 Text en Copyright © 2022 Mlyashimbi Helikumi et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Helikumi, Mlyashimbi
Eustace, Gideon
Mushayabasa, Steady
Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class
title Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class
title_full Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class
title_fullStr Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class
title_full_unstemmed Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class
title_short Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class
title_sort dynamics of a fractional-order chikungunya model with asymptomatic infectious class
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8843779/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35178113
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/5118382
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