Cargando…
Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class
In this paper, a nonlinear fractional-order chikungunya disease model that incorporates asymptomatic infectious individuals is proposed and analyzed. The main interest of this work is to investigate the role of memory effects on the dynamics of chikungunya. Qualitative analysis of the model's e...
Autores principales: | , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Hindawi
2022
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8843779/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35178113 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/5118382 |
_version_ | 1784651338077962240 |
---|---|
author | Helikumi, Mlyashimbi Eustace, Gideon Mushayabasa, Steady |
author_facet | Helikumi, Mlyashimbi Eustace, Gideon Mushayabasa, Steady |
author_sort | Helikumi, Mlyashimbi |
collection | PubMed |
description | In this paper, a nonlinear fractional-order chikungunya disease model that incorporates asymptomatic infectious individuals is proposed and analyzed. The main interest of this work is to investigate the role of memory effects on the dynamics of chikungunya. Qualitative analysis of the model's equilibria showed that there exists a threshold quantity which governs persistence and extinction of the disease. Model parameters were estimated based on the 2015 weekly reported cases in Colombia. The Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method was used to numerically solve the proposed model. We investigated the role of asymptomatic infectious patients on short- and long-term dynamics of the diseases. We also determined threshold levels for the efficacy of preventative strategies that results in effective management of the disease. We believe that our model can provide invaluable insights for public health authorities to predict the effect of chikungunya transmission and analyze its underlying factors and to guide new control efforts. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8843779 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Hindawi |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-88437792022-02-16 Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class Helikumi, Mlyashimbi Eustace, Gideon Mushayabasa, Steady Comput Math Methods Med Research Article In this paper, a nonlinear fractional-order chikungunya disease model that incorporates asymptomatic infectious individuals is proposed and analyzed. The main interest of this work is to investigate the role of memory effects on the dynamics of chikungunya. Qualitative analysis of the model's equilibria showed that there exists a threshold quantity which governs persistence and extinction of the disease. Model parameters were estimated based on the 2015 weekly reported cases in Colombia. The Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method was used to numerically solve the proposed model. We investigated the role of asymptomatic infectious patients on short- and long-term dynamics of the diseases. We also determined threshold levels for the efficacy of preventative strategies that results in effective management of the disease. We believe that our model can provide invaluable insights for public health authorities to predict the effect of chikungunya transmission and analyze its underlying factors and to guide new control efforts. Hindawi 2022-02-07 /pmc/articles/PMC8843779/ /pubmed/35178113 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/5118382 Text en Copyright © 2022 Mlyashimbi Helikumi et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Helikumi, Mlyashimbi Eustace, Gideon Mushayabasa, Steady Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class |
title | Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class |
title_full | Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class |
title_fullStr | Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class |
title_full_unstemmed | Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class |
title_short | Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Chikungunya Model with Asymptomatic Infectious Class |
title_sort | dynamics of a fractional-order chikungunya model with asymptomatic infectious class |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8843779/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35178113 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/5118382 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT helikumimlyashimbi dynamicsofafractionalorderchikungunyamodelwithasymptomaticinfectiousclass AT eustacegideon dynamicsofafractionalorderchikungunyamodelwithasymptomaticinfectiousclass AT mushayabasasteady dynamicsofafractionalorderchikungunyamodelwithasymptomaticinfectiousclass |