Pre-infection plasma cytokines and chemokines as predictors of HIV disease progression

Previous studies have highlighted the role of pre-infection systemic inflammation on HIV acquisition risk, but the extent to which it predicts disease progression outcomes is less studied. Here we examined the relationship between pre-infection plasma cytokine expression and the rate of HIV disease progression in South African women who seroconverted during the CAPRISA 004 tenofovir gel trial. Bio-Plex 200 system was used to measure the expression of 47 cytokines/chemokines in 69 seroconvertors from the CAPRISA 004 trial. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to measure associations between cytokine expression and CD4 decline prior to antiretroviral therapy initiation. Linear regression models were used to assess whether pre-infection cytokine expression were predictors of disease progression outcomes including peak and set-point viral load and CD4:CD8 ratio at less and greater than180 days post infection. Several cytokines were associated with increased peak HIV viral load (including IL-16, SCGFβ, MCP-3, IL-12p40, SCF, IFNα2 and IL-2). The strongest association with peak viral load was observed for SCGFβ, which was also inversely associated with lowest CD4:CD8 ratio < 180 days post infection and faster CD4 decline below 500 cells/µl (adjusted HR 4.537, 95% CI 1.475–13.954; p = 0.008) in multivariable analysis adjusting for age, study site, contraception, baseline HSV-2 status and trial arm allocation. Our results show that pre-infection systemic immune responses could play a role in HIV disease progression, especially in the early stages of infection.