Impact of one and two human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine doses on community-level HPV prevalence in South African adolescent girls: study protocol and rationale for a pragmatic before–after design

INTRODUCTION: Vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV) are the key to controlling cervical cancer in low/middle-income countries (LMICs) where incidence is highest, but there have been limited data from these settings on programme impact on HPV prevalence, and none in a population with endemic HIV infection. Furthermore, for many LMICs, the currently recommended two-dose schedule is difficult to deliver at scale, so there is mounting interest in a single-dose schedule. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Human Papillomavirus One and Two-Dose Population Effectiveness Study is a hybrid impact evaluation of the national South African HPV vaccination programme, which has targeted grade 4 girls aged at least 9 years in public schools with two doses of vaccine since 2014, and a single-dose vaccine ‘catch-up’ programme delivered in one district in 2019. Impacts of both schedules on the prevalence of type-specific HPV infection will be measured using repeat cross-sectional surveys in adolescent girls and young women aged 17–18 years recruited at primary healthcare clinics in the four provinces. A baseline survey in 2019 measured HPV prevalence in the cohort who were ineligible for vaccination because they were already above the target age or grade under either the national programme or the single-dose programme in the selected district. HPV prevalence surveys are repeated in 2021 in the selected district, and in 2023 in all four provinces. We will calculate prevalence ratios to compare the prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 in the single-dose (2021) and two-dose (2023) cohorts, with the vaccine-ineligible (2019) cohort. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The project was approved by the University of the Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC #181005), and the University of New South Wales HREC (#181-005). Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, scientific meetings, reports and community forums.