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Influence of heterogeneous age-group contact patterns on critical vaccination rates for herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2
Currently, several western countries have more than half of their population fully vaccinated against COVID-19. At the same time, some of them are experiencing a fourth or even a fifth wave of cases, most of them concentrated in sectors of the populations whose vaccination coverage is lower than the...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8850460/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35173229 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06477-0 |
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author | Saldaña, Joan Scoglio, Caterina |
author_facet | Saldaña, Joan Scoglio, Caterina |
author_sort | Saldaña, Joan |
collection | PubMed |
description | Currently, several western countries have more than half of their population fully vaccinated against COVID-19. At the same time, some of them are experiencing a fourth or even a fifth wave of cases, most of them concentrated in sectors of the populations whose vaccination coverage is lower than the average. So, the initial scenario of vaccine prioritization has given way to a new one where achieving herd immunity is the primary concern. Using an age-structured vaccination model with waning immunity, we show that, under a limited supply of vaccines, a vaccination strategy based on minimizing the basic reproduction number allows for the deployment of a number of vaccine doses lower than the one required for maximizing the vaccination coverage. Such minimization is achieved by giving greater protection to those age groups that, for a given social contact pattern, have smaller fractions of susceptible individuals at the endemic equilibrium without vaccination, that is, to those groups that are more vulnerable to infection. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8850460 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-88504602022-02-17 Influence of heterogeneous age-group contact patterns on critical vaccination rates for herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 Saldaña, Joan Scoglio, Caterina Sci Rep Article Currently, several western countries have more than half of their population fully vaccinated against COVID-19. At the same time, some of them are experiencing a fourth or even a fifth wave of cases, most of them concentrated in sectors of the populations whose vaccination coverage is lower than the average. So, the initial scenario of vaccine prioritization has given way to a new one where achieving herd immunity is the primary concern. Using an age-structured vaccination model with waning immunity, we show that, under a limited supply of vaccines, a vaccination strategy based on minimizing the basic reproduction number allows for the deployment of a number of vaccine doses lower than the one required for maximizing the vaccination coverage. Such minimization is achieved by giving greater protection to those age groups that, for a given social contact pattern, have smaller fractions of susceptible individuals at the endemic equilibrium without vaccination, that is, to those groups that are more vulnerable to infection. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-02-16 /pmc/articles/PMC8850460/ /pubmed/35173229 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06477-0 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Saldaña, Joan Scoglio, Caterina Influence of heterogeneous age-group contact patterns on critical vaccination rates for herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 |
title | Influence of heterogeneous age-group contact patterns on critical vaccination rates for herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 |
title_full | Influence of heterogeneous age-group contact patterns on critical vaccination rates for herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 |
title_fullStr | Influence of heterogeneous age-group contact patterns on critical vaccination rates for herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 |
title_full_unstemmed | Influence of heterogeneous age-group contact patterns on critical vaccination rates for herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 |
title_short | Influence of heterogeneous age-group contact patterns on critical vaccination rates for herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 |
title_sort | influence of heterogeneous age-group contact patterns on critical vaccination rates for herd immunity to sars-cov-2 |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8850460/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35173229 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06477-0 |
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