Cost-effectiveness analysis of dapagliflozin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Spain: results of the DECLARE-TIMI 58 study

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis of dapagliflozin, as an add-on therapy to standard of care (SoC), for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Spain, based on the results of the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model (Cardiff T2DM) based on the data observed in the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial was adapted to the Spanish setting to estimate the costs and health outcomes of treatment with dapagliflozin in patients with T2DM who had or were at risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Macrovascular events (hospitalization for heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and unstable angina), end-stage renal disease and cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality were modeled according to the survival equations of the DECLARE-TIMI 58 study. Microvascular events (blindness and ulcers) were estimated based on the risk equations of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study. The analysis was conducted from the Spanish National Health System perspective and the time horizon was 30 years. The results were evaluated in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Only direct health costs were included, and a 3% discount rate was applied to costs and health outcomes. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were made to assess the robustness of the results. RESULTS: In the main analysis, dapagliflozin was a dominant therapeutic option compared with placebo, with greater effectiveness (0.08 QALYs) and lower associated total costs per patient (€ -2,921). The univariate sensitivity analysis and the PSA confirmed the robustness of the results. The PSA showed the probability that dapagliflozin was a dominant alternative compared with placebo was 84.2% and that it was cost-effective of 92.1%, under a willingness-to-pay of € 20,000/QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis of data from the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial shows that dapagliflozin would be a cost-effective option in Spain for the treatment of adult patients with T2DM, as an add-on therapy to SoC, compared with placebo. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-07567-5.