Outcomes of upper gastrointestinal cancer screening in high-risk individuals: a population-based prospective study in Northeast China

OBJECTIVES: The strategy for upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGC) screening has not yet been determined, especially in northeast China. DESIGN: The sample was from an ongoing prospective population-based cohort for cancer screening. PARTICIPANTS: This study belonged to the Chinese Urban Cancer Screening Program. The analysis was based on the recruitment of participants aged 40–74 in Northeast China from 2016 to 2017. Totally, 39 369 eligible participants were recruited, 8772 were evaluated to be at high risk for UGC, 1957 underwent endoscopy. OUTCOMES: χ(2) test and multifactor logistic regression model was performed to analyse influencing factors of participation rate. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was applied to evaluate the diagnostic power of the high-risk assessment. The Cox regression model was used to estimate hazard ratio (HR) for the potential value. RESULTS: The high-risk rate was 22.28% and the participation rate of endoscopy screening was 22.31%. Factors such as age at 45–59 years, female sex, high level of education, occupation for professional and technical personnel, former drinking, secondary smoking, less physical activity, history of trauma or mental depression, history of upper gastrointestinal system disease and family history of UGC were associated with increased participation in endoscopy screening (all the p<0.05). There were five UGCs, 86 oesophageal precancerous lesions and 145 gastric precancerous lesions, and the detection rates were 0.26%, 4.39% and 7.41%, respectively. The detection rate for both oesophageal and gastric lesions increased with age and was higher for men than for women (all the p<0.05). After a 3-year follow-up, 30 UGCs had been diagnosed and the high risk of UGC increased the mortality risk ratio (HR: 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41 to 2.56). CONCLUSION: The participation rate and outcomes of UGC screening were promising in our study and will provide important reference for evaluating value of UGC screening in China.