Financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a Bayesian approach to predict SMEs’ default

The paper aims to jointly combine three different categories of variables (financial ratios, corporate governance data and bank-firm information) to predict SMEs’ default. To this end, a merged longitudinal predictive model was applied to a sample of 973 Italian SMEs that are clients of 36 different...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Gallucci, Carmen, Santullli, Rosalia, Modina, Michele, Formisano, Vincenzo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8853378/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10997-021-09614-5
_version_ 1784653218077212672
author Gallucci, Carmen
Santullli, Rosalia
Modina, Michele
Formisano, Vincenzo
author_facet Gallucci, Carmen
Santullli, Rosalia
Modina, Michele
Formisano, Vincenzo
author_sort Gallucci, Carmen
collection PubMed
description The paper aims to jointly combine three different categories of variables (financial ratios, corporate governance data and bank-firm information) to predict SMEs’ default. To this end, a merged longitudinal predictive model was applied to a sample of 973 Italian SMEs that are clients of 36 different co-operative banks. The collected data (for a total of 23 variables included in the model) relate to the years 2012–2014. The main findings reveal the high predictive power of leverage ratio, CEO tenure and ownership concentration, and the number of loans overdue for more than 180 days in the previous 12 months.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8853378
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Springer US
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-88533782022-02-18 Financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a Bayesian approach to predict SMEs’ default Gallucci, Carmen Santullli, Rosalia Modina, Michele Formisano, Vincenzo J Manag Gov Article The paper aims to jointly combine three different categories of variables (financial ratios, corporate governance data and bank-firm information) to predict SMEs’ default. To this end, a merged longitudinal predictive model was applied to a sample of 973 Italian SMEs that are clients of 36 different co-operative banks. The collected data (for a total of 23 variables included in the model) relate to the years 2012–2014. The main findings reveal the high predictive power of leverage ratio, CEO tenure and ownership concentration, and the number of loans overdue for more than 180 days in the previous 12 months. Springer US 2022-02-17 /pmc/articles/PMC8853378/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10997-021-09614-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Gallucci, Carmen
Santullli, Rosalia
Modina, Michele
Formisano, Vincenzo
Financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a Bayesian approach to predict SMEs’ default
title Financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a Bayesian approach to predict SMEs’ default
title_full Financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a Bayesian approach to predict SMEs’ default
title_fullStr Financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a Bayesian approach to predict SMEs’ default
title_full_unstemmed Financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a Bayesian approach to predict SMEs’ default
title_short Financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a Bayesian approach to predict SMEs’ default
title_sort financial ratios, corporate governance and bank-firm information: a bayesian approach to predict smes’ default
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8853378/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10997-021-09614-5
work_keys_str_mv AT galluccicarmen financialratioscorporategovernanceandbankfirminformationabayesianapproachtopredictsmesdefault
AT santulllirosalia financialratioscorporategovernanceandbankfirminformationabayesianapproachtopredictsmesdefault
AT modinamichele financialratioscorporategovernanceandbankfirminformationabayesianapproachtopredictsmesdefault
AT formisanovincenzo financialratioscorporategovernanceandbankfirminformationabayesianapproachtopredictsmesdefault

Ejemplares similares