Cargando…

Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of torrential rains and floods around the world. Estimating the costs of these disasters is one of the five global research priorities identified by WHO. The 2018 Japan Floods hit western Japan causing extensive destruction and many...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Yoshida, Shuhei, Kashima, Saori, Ishii, Shinya, Koike, Soichi, Matsumoto, Masatoshi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8855556/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35177009
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-12492-7
_version_ 1784653675275223040
author Yoshida, Shuhei
Kashima, Saori
Ishii, Shinya
Koike, Soichi
Matsumoto, Masatoshi
author_facet Yoshida, Shuhei
Kashima, Saori
Ishii, Shinya
Koike, Soichi
Matsumoto, Masatoshi
author_sort Yoshida, Shuhei
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of torrential rains and floods around the world. Estimating the costs of these disasters is one of the five global research priorities identified by WHO. The 2018 Japan Floods hit western Japan causing extensive destruction and many deaths, especially among vulnerable elderly. Such affected elderly would need long-term care due to the various health problems caused by the disaster. A Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) system provides care services in Japan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on LTCI costs and service utilization. METHODS: The participants of this retrospective cohort study were all verified persons utilizing LTCI services in Hiroshima, Okayama and Ehime prefectures. The observation period was from 2 months before to 6 months after the disaster. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to examine the association between disaster status (victims or non-victims) and the monthly total costs of LTCI service (with gamma-distribution/log-link) by residential environment (home or facility). Among home residents, we also examined each service utilization (home-based service, short-stay service and facility service), using the GEEs. After the GEEs, we estimated Average Marginal Effects (AME) over all observation periods by months as the attributable disaster effect. RESULTS: The total number of participants was 279,578. There were 3024 flood victims. The disaster was associated with significantly higher total costs. The AME for home residents at 2 months after was $214 (Standard Error (SE): 12, p < 0.001), which was the highest through the observation period. Among facility residents, the AME immediately after the disaster increased by up to $850 (SE: 29, p < 0.001). The service utilization among home residents showed a different trend for each service. The AME of home-based services decreased by up to − 15.2% (SE:1.3, p < 0.001). The AME for short-stay service increased by up to 8.2% (SE: 0.9, p < 0.001) and the AME for facility service increased by up to 7.4% (SE: 0.7, p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 2018 Japan Floods caused an increase in LTCI costs and the utilization of short-stay and facility services, and a decrease in utilization of home-based services. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-12492-7.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8855556
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher BioMed Central
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-88555562022-02-23 Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study Yoshida, Shuhei Kashima, Saori Ishii, Shinya Koike, Soichi Matsumoto, Masatoshi BMC Public Health Research BACKGROUND: Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of torrential rains and floods around the world. Estimating the costs of these disasters is one of the five global research priorities identified by WHO. The 2018 Japan Floods hit western Japan causing extensive destruction and many deaths, especially among vulnerable elderly. Such affected elderly would need long-term care due to the various health problems caused by the disaster. A Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) system provides care services in Japan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on LTCI costs and service utilization. METHODS: The participants of this retrospective cohort study were all verified persons utilizing LTCI services in Hiroshima, Okayama and Ehime prefectures. The observation period was from 2 months before to 6 months after the disaster. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to examine the association between disaster status (victims or non-victims) and the monthly total costs of LTCI service (with gamma-distribution/log-link) by residential environment (home or facility). Among home residents, we also examined each service utilization (home-based service, short-stay service and facility service), using the GEEs. After the GEEs, we estimated Average Marginal Effects (AME) over all observation periods by months as the attributable disaster effect. RESULTS: The total number of participants was 279,578. There were 3024 flood victims. The disaster was associated with significantly higher total costs. The AME for home residents at 2 months after was $214 (Standard Error (SE): 12, p < 0.001), which was the highest through the observation period. Among facility residents, the AME immediately after the disaster increased by up to $850 (SE: 29, p < 0.001). The service utilization among home residents showed a different trend for each service. The AME of home-based services decreased by up to − 15.2% (SE:1.3, p < 0.001). The AME for short-stay service increased by up to 8.2% (SE: 0.9, p < 0.001) and the AME for facility service increased by up to 7.4% (SE: 0.7, p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 2018 Japan Floods caused an increase in LTCI costs and the utilization of short-stay and facility services, and a decrease in utilization of home-based services. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-12492-7. BioMed Central 2022-02-17 /pmc/articles/PMC8855556/ /pubmed/35177009 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-12492-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research
Yoshida, Shuhei
Kashima, Saori
Ishii, Shinya
Koike, Soichi
Matsumoto, Masatoshi
Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study
title Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study
title_full Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study
title_fullStr Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study
title_full_unstemmed Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study
title_short Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study
title_sort effects of the 2018 japan floods on long-term care insurance costs in japan: retrospective cohort study
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8855556/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35177009
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-12492-7
work_keys_str_mv AT yoshidashuhei effectsofthe2018japanfloodsonlongtermcareinsurancecostsinjapanretrospectivecohortstudy
AT kashimasaori effectsofthe2018japanfloodsonlongtermcareinsurancecostsinjapanretrospectivecohortstudy
AT ishiishinya effectsofthe2018japanfloodsonlongtermcareinsurancecostsinjapanretrospectivecohortstudy
AT koikesoichi effectsofthe2018japanfloodsonlongtermcareinsurancecostsinjapanretrospectivecohortstudy
AT matsumotomasatoshi effectsofthe2018japanfloodsonlongtermcareinsurancecostsinjapanretrospectivecohortstudy