The value of clinical-ultrasonographic feature model to predict the severity of secondary hyperparathyroidism

OBJECTIVES: To analyze conventional ultrasound (CUS) and contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) features in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) and to evaluate the clinical-ultrasonographic feature based model for predicting the severity of SHPT. METHODS: From February 2016 to March 2021, a total of 59 patients (age 51.3 ± 11.7 years, seCr 797.8 ± 431.7 μmol/L, iPTH 1535.1 ± 1063.9 ng/L) with SHPT (including 181 parathyroid glands (PTGs)) without the history of intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH)-reducing drugs using were enrolled. The patients were divided into the mild SHPT group (mSHPT, iPTH <800 ng/L) and the severe SHPT group (sSHPT, iPTH ≥ 800 ng/L) according to the serum iPTH level. The clinical test data of patients were collected and CUS and CEUS examinations were performed for every patient. Multivariable logistic regression model according to clinical-ultrasonographic features was adopted to establish a nomogram. We performed K-fold cross-validation on this nomogram model and nomogram performance was determined by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: There were 19 patients in the mSHPT group and 40 patients in the sSHPT group. Multivariable logistic regression indicated serum calcium, serum phosphorus and total volume of PTGs were independent predictors related with serum iPTH level. Even though CEUS score of wash-in and wash-out were showed related to severity of SHPT in univariate logistic regression analysis, they were not predictors of SHPT severity (p = 0.539, 0.474 respectively). The nomogram developed by clinical and ultrasonographic features showed good calibration and discrimination. The accuracy and the area under the curve (AUC), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy of this model were 0.888, 92.5%, 63.2% and 83.1%, respectively. When applied to internal validation, the score revealed good discrimination with stratified fivefold cross-validation in the cohort (mean AUC = 0.833). CONCLUSIONS: The clinical-ultrasonographic features model has good performance for predicting the severity of SHPT.