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Use of a deep learning and random forest approach to track changes in the predictive nature of socioeconomic drivers of under-5 mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVES: We used machine learning algorithms to track how the ranks of importance and the survival outcome of four socioeconomic determinants (place of residence, mother’s level of education, wealth index and sex of the child) of under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in sub-Saharan Africa have evolved. S...

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Autores principales: Nasejje, Justine B, Mbuvha, Rendani, Mwambi, Henry
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BMJ Publishing Group 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8860054/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35177443
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049786
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author Nasejje, Justine B
Mbuvha, Rendani
Mwambi, Henry
author_facet Nasejje, Justine B
Mbuvha, Rendani
Mwambi, Henry
author_sort Nasejje, Justine B
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: We used machine learning algorithms to track how the ranks of importance and the survival outcome of four socioeconomic determinants (place of residence, mother’s level of education, wealth index and sex of the child) of under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in sub-Saharan Africa have evolved. SETTINGS: This work consists of multiple cross-sectional studies. We analysed data from the Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) collected from four countries; Uganda, Zimbabwe, Chad and Ghana, each randomly selected from the four subregions of sub-Saharan Africa. PARTICIPANTS: Each country has multiple DHS datasets and a total of 11 datasets were selected for analysis. A total of n=85 688 children were drawn from the eleven datasets. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: The primary outcome variable is U5MR; the secondary outcomes were to obtain the ranks of importance of the four socioeconomic factors over time and to compare the two machine learning models, the random survival forest (RSF) and the deep survival neural network (DeepSurv) in predicting U5MR. RESULTS: Mother’s education level ranked first in five datasets. Wealth index ranked first in three, place of residence ranked first in two and sex of the child ranked last in most of the datasets. The four factors showed a favourable survival outcome over time, confirming that past interventions targeting these factors are yielding positive results. The DeepSurv model has a higher predictive performance with mean concordance indexes (between 67% and 80%), above 50% compared with the RSF model. CONCLUSIONS: The study reveals that children under the age of 5 in sub-Saharan Africa have favourable survival outcomes associated with the four socioeconomic factors over time. It also shows that deep survival neural network models are efficient in predicting U5MR and should, therefore, be used in the big data era to draft evidence-based policies to achieve the third sustainable development goal.
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spelling pubmed-88600542022-03-08 Use of a deep learning and random forest approach to track changes in the predictive nature of socioeconomic drivers of under-5 mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa Nasejje, Justine B Mbuvha, Rendani Mwambi, Henry BMJ Open Public Health OBJECTIVES: We used machine learning algorithms to track how the ranks of importance and the survival outcome of four socioeconomic determinants (place of residence, mother’s level of education, wealth index and sex of the child) of under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in sub-Saharan Africa have evolved. SETTINGS: This work consists of multiple cross-sectional studies. We analysed data from the Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) collected from four countries; Uganda, Zimbabwe, Chad and Ghana, each randomly selected from the four subregions of sub-Saharan Africa. PARTICIPANTS: Each country has multiple DHS datasets and a total of 11 datasets were selected for analysis. A total of n=85 688 children were drawn from the eleven datasets. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: The primary outcome variable is U5MR; the secondary outcomes were to obtain the ranks of importance of the four socioeconomic factors over time and to compare the two machine learning models, the random survival forest (RSF) and the deep survival neural network (DeepSurv) in predicting U5MR. RESULTS: Mother’s education level ranked first in five datasets. Wealth index ranked first in three, place of residence ranked first in two and sex of the child ranked last in most of the datasets. The four factors showed a favourable survival outcome over time, confirming that past interventions targeting these factors are yielding positive results. The DeepSurv model has a higher predictive performance with mean concordance indexes (between 67% and 80%), above 50% compared with the RSF model. CONCLUSIONS: The study reveals that children under the age of 5 in sub-Saharan Africa have favourable survival outcomes associated with the four socioeconomic factors over time. It also shows that deep survival neural network models are efficient in predicting U5MR and should, therefore, be used in the big data era to draft evidence-based policies to achieve the third sustainable development goal. BMJ Publishing Group 2022-02-16 /pmc/articles/PMC8860054/ /pubmed/35177443 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049786 Text en © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Public Health
Nasejje, Justine B
Mbuvha, Rendani
Mwambi, Henry
Use of a deep learning and random forest approach to track changes in the predictive nature of socioeconomic drivers of under-5 mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa
title Use of a deep learning and random forest approach to track changes in the predictive nature of socioeconomic drivers of under-5 mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa
title_full Use of a deep learning and random forest approach to track changes in the predictive nature of socioeconomic drivers of under-5 mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa
title_fullStr Use of a deep learning and random forest approach to track changes in the predictive nature of socioeconomic drivers of under-5 mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa
title_full_unstemmed Use of a deep learning and random forest approach to track changes in the predictive nature of socioeconomic drivers of under-5 mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa
title_short Use of a deep learning and random forest approach to track changes in the predictive nature of socioeconomic drivers of under-5 mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa
title_sort use of a deep learning and random forest approach to track changes in the predictive nature of socioeconomic drivers of under-5 mortality rates in sub-saharan africa
topic Public Health
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8860054/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35177443
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049786
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