Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model

We use a susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) model to examine the impacts of different isolation measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The model predicts that strong isolation measures in the early stage of the pandemic can not only delay the time for the number of infections and deaths to reach...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Qiu, Hong, Wang, Qian, Wu, Qun, Zhou, Hongyong
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Inc. 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8860491/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.063
Descripción
Sumario:We use a susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) model to examine the impacts of different isolation measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The model predicts that strong isolation measures in the early stage of the pandemic can not only delay the time for the number of infections and deaths to reach the peak but also greatly reduce the cumulative number of infections and deaths. We verify the model predictions by using the simulation and the data of the COVID-19 cases. The results are independent of the joint distribution of the fatality rate and the initial number of active cases.

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