Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model

We use a susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) model to examine the impacts of different isolation measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The model predicts that strong isolation measures in the early stage of the pandemic can not only delay the time for the number of infections and deaths to reach...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Qiu, Hong, Wang, Qian, Wu, Qun, Zhou, Hongyong
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Inc. 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8860491/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.063
_version_ 1784654685928423424
author Qiu, Hong
Wang, Qian
Wu, Qun
Zhou, Hongyong
author_facet Qiu, Hong
Wang, Qian
Wu, Qun
Zhou, Hongyong
author_sort Qiu, Hong
collection PubMed
description We use a susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) model to examine the impacts of different isolation measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The model predicts that strong isolation measures in the early stage of the pandemic can not only delay the time for the number of infections and deaths to reach the peak but also greatly reduce the cumulative number of infections and deaths. We verify the model predictions by using the simulation and the data of the COVID-19 cases. The results are independent of the joint distribution of the fatality rate and the initial number of active cases.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8860491
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Elsevier Inc.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-88604912022-02-22 Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model Qiu, Hong Wang, Qian Wu, Qun Zhou, Hongyong International Review of Economics & Finance Article We use a susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) model to examine the impacts of different isolation measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The model predicts that strong isolation measures in the early stage of the pandemic can not only delay the time for the number of infections and deaths to reach the peak but also greatly reduce the cumulative number of infections and deaths. We verify the model predictions by using the simulation and the data of the COVID-19 cases. The results are independent of the joint distribution of the fatality rate and the initial number of active cases. Elsevier Inc. 2022-07 2022-02-22 /pmc/articles/PMC8860491/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.063 Text en © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Qiu, Hong
Wang, Qian
Wu, Qun
Zhou, Hongyong
Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model
title Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model
title_full Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model
title_fullStr Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model
title_full_unstemmed Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model
title_short Does flattening the curve make a difference? An investigation of the COVID-19 pandemic based on an SIR model
title_sort does flattening the curve make a difference? an investigation of the covid-19 pandemic based on an sir model
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8860491/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.063
work_keys_str_mv AT qiuhong doesflatteningthecurvemakeadifferenceaninvestigationofthecovid19pandemicbasedonansirmodel
AT wangqian doesflatteningthecurvemakeadifferenceaninvestigationofthecovid19pandemicbasedonansirmodel
AT wuqun doesflatteningthecurvemakeadifferenceaninvestigationofthecovid19pandemicbasedonansirmodel
AT zhouhongyong doesflatteningthecurvemakeadifferenceaninvestigationofthecovid19pandemicbasedonansirmodel

Ejemplares similares