Cargando…

Non-stationary analysis for road drainage design under land-use and climate change scenarios

Frequency analysis has been the most widely used tool worldwide to dimension water-related infrastructures and evaluate flood risks. The concept of stationarity has been a common and practical hypothesis in hydrology for many years. However, in recent decades due to climate change pressure and chang...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Jiménez-U, Mónica, Peña, Luis E., López, Jesús
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8860927/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35243064
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e08942
_version_ 1784654771915849728
author Jiménez-U, Mónica
Peña, Luis E.
López, Jesús
author_facet Jiménez-U, Mónica
Peña, Luis E.
López, Jesús
author_sort Jiménez-U, Mónica
collection PubMed
description Frequency analysis has been the most widely used tool worldwide to dimension water-related infrastructures and evaluate flood risks. The concept of stationarity has been a common and practical hypothesis in hydrology for many years. However, in recent decades due to climate change pressure and changes in land use, it has been related to the presence of time-series trends that in hydrology indicate non-stationary effects. In this sense, the need to comprehensively address non-stationary frequency analysis has been identified. This study proposes to incorporate the non-stationary flood frequency analysis into the dimensioning process of road structures with the following objectives: i) evaluate the effect of land use on peak flow in a simulated period of 129 years, ii) evaluate covariates related to land use, and iii) evaluate covariates related to climate change. To this end, road drainage simulation exercises were carried out in three sections of the Ibagué-Cajamarca road located in Colombia. Likewise, the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape was implemented for the non-stationary analysis, and covariates related to climate variability were included, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices (ONI12, ONI3.4, MEI, and SOI), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, as well as some related to the evolution of land use such as hydraulic conductivity, soil water storage in the root zone, and infiltration capacity represented in the curve number. The results indicate that the non-stationary analysis improves the prediction of maximum flows, and it is possible to obtain road drainage dimensioning that adjusts to climate and land-use variations.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8860927
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Elsevier
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-88609272022-03-02 Non-stationary analysis for road drainage design under land-use and climate change scenarios Jiménez-U, Mónica Peña, Luis E. López, Jesús Heliyon Research Article Frequency analysis has been the most widely used tool worldwide to dimension water-related infrastructures and evaluate flood risks. The concept of stationarity has been a common and practical hypothesis in hydrology for many years. However, in recent decades due to climate change pressure and changes in land use, it has been related to the presence of time-series trends that in hydrology indicate non-stationary effects. In this sense, the need to comprehensively address non-stationary frequency analysis has been identified. This study proposes to incorporate the non-stationary flood frequency analysis into the dimensioning process of road structures with the following objectives: i) evaluate the effect of land use on peak flow in a simulated period of 129 years, ii) evaluate covariates related to land use, and iii) evaluate covariates related to climate change. To this end, road drainage simulation exercises were carried out in three sections of the Ibagué-Cajamarca road located in Colombia. Likewise, the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape was implemented for the non-stationary analysis, and covariates related to climate variability were included, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices (ONI12, ONI3.4, MEI, and SOI), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, as well as some related to the evolution of land use such as hydraulic conductivity, soil water storage in the root zone, and infiltration capacity represented in the curve number. The results indicate that the non-stationary analysis improves the prediction of maximum flows, and it is possible to obtain road drainage dimensioning that adjusts to climate and land-use variations. Elsevier 2022-02-16 /pmc/articles/PMC8860927/ /pubmed/35243064 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e08942 Text en © 2022 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Research Article
Jiménez-U, Mónica
Peña, Luis E.
López, Jesús
Non-stationary analysis for road drainage design under land-use and climate change scenarios
title Non-stationary analysis for road drainage design under land-use and climate change scenarios
title_full Non-stationary analysis for road drainage design under land-use and climate change scenarios
title_fullStr Non-stationary analysis for road drainage design under land-use and climate change scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Non-stationary analysis for road drainage design under land-use and climate change scenarios
title_short Non-stationary analysis for road drainage design under land-use and climate change scenarios
title_sort non-stationary analysis for road drainage design under land-use and climate change scenarios
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8860927/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35243064
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e08942
work_keys_str_mv AT jimenezumonica nonstationaryanalysisforroaddrainagedesignunderlanduseandclimatechangescenarios
AT penaluise nonstationaryanalysisforroaddrainagedesignunderlanduseandclimatechangescenarios
AT lopezjesus nonstationaryanalysisforroaddrainagedesignunderlanduseandclimatechangescenarios