Detailed Subphenotyping of Lumbar Modic Changes and Their Association with Low Back Pain in a Large Population-Based Study: The Wakayama Spine Study

INTRODUCTION: To examine the association between the five types of Modic changes and low back pain (LBP) in a large population-based cohort. METHODS: Of the 952 participants in the second Wakayama Spine Study, 814 (men, 246; women, 568; mean age, 63.6 years) were included in this study. Endplate changes on magnetic resonance imaging were classified according to the Modic classification system. Low back pain (LBP) was defined as continuous back pain for at least 48 h in the past month that is currently present. The prevalence of Modic changes in the lumbar region was assessed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to determine the association between detailed subphenotype of Modic change and LBP comparing no Modic change in the lumbar spine and each level, respectively. RESULTS: Modic changes throughout the lumbar spine were noted in 63.5% (n = 516) of all participants, with types I, I/II, II, II/III, and III observed in 7.8% (n = 63), 10.8% (n = 88), 40.0% (n = 326), 2.1% (n = 17), and 2.7% (n = 22), respectively. Modic types I/II were associated with LBP [odds ratio (OR): 3.26; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9, 5.5]. Furthermore, Modic type I/II changes at L2/3 and L4/5 were significantly associated with LBP (odds ratio: 2.77; 95% CI 1.04, 7.39 at L2/3; odds ratio: 2.86; 95% CI 1.39, 5.90 at L4/5). CONCLUSIONS: Type I/II Modic changes in the lumbar region are significantly associated with LBP. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first large population-based study on the association between various Modic changes and LBP.