Does COVID-19 increase the long-term relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis clinical activity? A cohort study

BACKGROUND: Some current evidence is pointing towards an association between COVID-19 and worsening of multiple sclerosis (MS), stressing the importance of preventing COVID-19 among people with MS (pwMS). However, population-based evidence regarding the long-term post-COVID-19 course of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) was limited when this study was initiated. OBJECTIVE: To detect possible changes in MS clinical disease activity after COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted an observational study from July 2020 until July 2021 in the Isfahan MS clinic, comparing the trends of probable disability progression (PDP) – defined as a three-month sustained increase in expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score – and relapses before and after probable/definitive COVID-19 diagnosis in a cohort of people with RRMS (pwRRMS). RESULTS: Ninety pwRRMS were identified with definitive COVID-19, 53 of which were included in the final analysis. The PDP rate was significantly (0.06 vs 0.19, P = 0.04), and the relapse rate was insignificantly (0.21 vs 0.30, P = 0.30) lower post-COVID-19, compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. The results were maintained after offsetting by follow-up period in the matched binary logistic model. Survival analysis did not indicate significant difference in PDP-free (Hazard Ratio [HR] [95% CI]: 0.46 [0.12, 1.73], P = 0.25) and relapse-free (HR [95% CI]: 0.69 [0.31, 1.53], P = 0.36) survivals between the pre- and post-COVID-19 periods. Sensitivity analysis resulted similar measurements, although statistical significance was not achieved. CONCLUSION: While subject to replication in future research settings, our results did not confirm any increase in the long-term clinical disease activity measures after COVID-19 contraction among pwRRMS. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-022-02590-9.