Predictors of Outcome of Cirrhotic Patients Requiring Invasive Mechanical Ventilation: Experience From a Non-Transplant Tertiary Care Hospital in Pakistan

Background Patients with known liver cirrhosis, irrespective of the etiology, have poor outcomes when put on invasive mechanical ventilation in an intensive care unit (ICU) setting. The clinical situation becomes even more complicated when such patients are managed in a non-transplant center. Various factors are associated with poor outcomes, and hence, various scoring systems are available to help determine the prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis. These scoring systems are broadly classified into two categories, namely, ICU-specific scoring systems and liver disease-specific scoring systems. There is a dearth of data from Pakistan regarding which score better determines the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to the ICU. In this study, we aimed to determine the outcome of cirrhotic patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation in a non-transplant tertiary care hospital in Pakistan using ICU-specific and liver disease-specific scoring systems. Methodology A retrospective study design was applied to a record of 88 cirrhotic patients admitted to the medical ICU of a tertiary care teaching hospital in Karachi, Pakistan, from January 2016 to November 2016. Patients with acute hepatitis were excluded. Data on patients’ characteristics, the reason for intubation, hepatic encephalopathy, the need for vasopressor support, and the duration of ICU and hospital stay were collected. Moreover, the first-day Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores were calculated, with mortality being the primary outcome measure. Results The most common etiology was hepatitis C (52.3%, 46/88). The most common reason for intubation was airway protection (57.9%, 51/88). Overall mortality was 71.6% (63/88). On univariate analysis, CTP score >10, MELD score >18, hepatic encephalopathy, bilirubin, prothrombin time, presence of tense ascites, and APACHE II were significantly associated with mortality. On multivariate analysis, CTP score >10 (odd ratio = 21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4-104; p < 0.001) was an independent predictor of mortality. Area under curve was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.82-0.96) for CTP, 0.86 (95% CI = 0.77-0.95) for MELD, 0.81 (95% CI = 0.69-0.92) for APACHE II, and 0.81 (95% CI = 0.71-0.91) for SOFA in predicting mortality. Conclusions CTP and MELD scores are better predictors of short-term mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis requiring invasive mechanical ventilation compared to APACHE II and SOFA scores. CTP score >10 was an independent predictor of mortality.