Cargando…

Projecting future changes in distributions of small-scale pelagic fisheries of the southern Colombian Pacific Ocean

Small-scale fisheries (SSF) contribute to nearly half of global landings and provide multiple socioeconomic benefits to coastal communities. The Pacific coast SSF represents 37% of the total fisheries landings in Colombia. Scientific literature continually shows that tropical marine habitats are mos...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Selvaraj, John Josephraj, Rosero-Henao, Leidy Viviana, Cifuentes-Ossa, María Alejandra
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8866063/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35243094
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e08975
_version_ 1784655755278811136
author Selvaraj, John Josephraj
Rosero-Henao, Leidy Viviana
Cifuentes-Ossa, María Alejandra
author_facet Selvaraj, John Josephraj
Rosero-Henao, Leidy Viviana
Cifuentes-Ossa, María Alejandra
author_sort Selvaraj, John Josephraj
collection PubMed
description Small-scale fisheries (SSF) contribute to nearly half of global landings and provide multiple socioeconomic benefits to coastal communities. The Pacific coast SSF represents 37% of the total fisheries landings in Colombia. Scientific literature continually shows that tropical marine habitats are most vulnerable to oceanic changes associated with climate change. This study prioritized three pelagic species (Euthynnus lineatus, Scomberomorus sierra, and Cynoscion albus) based on their landing statistics to develop potential current and future species distributions using five ensembled machine learning models including Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), Random Forest (RF), and Classification Tree (CT). Future distributions of these species in the medium-term (2050s) and long-term (2080s) were modeled using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios for four ensembled General Circulation Models (GCMs) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, change detections were calculated to identify contraction and expansion of areas, and the distributional core shift was determined to estimate the spatial movements. Results indicate that E. lineatus and S. sierra will potentially move to deeper waters away from the coastline. Alternatively, C. albus could be a species to potentially gain more importance for the fishing sector due to potential variations in climate. These results constitute a critical scientific basis for evaluating the climate change vulnerability of the fishing sector and the decision-making process in the future of small-scale fishery management in the southern Colombian Pacific Ocean.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8866063
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Elsevier
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-88660632022-03-02 Projecting future changes in distributions of small-scale pelagic fisheries of the southern Colombian Pacific Ocean Selvaraj, John Josephraj Rosero-Henao, Leidy Viviana Cifuentes-Ossa, María Alejandra Heliyon Research Article Small-scale fisheries (SSF) contribute to nearly half of global landings and provide multiple socioeconomic benefits to coastal communities. The Pacific coast SSF represents 37% of the total fisheries landings in Colombia. Scientific literature continually shows that tropical marine habitats are most vulnerable to oceanic changes associated with climate change. This study prioritized three pelagic species (Euthynnus lineatus, Scomberomorus sierra, and Cynoscion albus) based on their landing statistics to develop potential current and future species distributions using five ensembled machine learning models including Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), Random Forest (RF), and Classification Tree (CT). Future distributions of these species in the medium-term (2050s) and long-term (2080s) were modeled using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios for four ensembled General Circulation Models (GCMs) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, change detections were calculated to identify contraction and expansion of areas, and the distributional core shift was determined to estimate the spatial movements. Results indicate that E. lineatus and S. sierra will potentially move to deeper waters away from the coastline. Alternatively, C. albus could be a species to potentially gain more importance for the fishing sector due to potential variations in climate. These results constitute a critical scientific basis for evaluating the climate change vulnerability of the fishing sector and the decision-making process in the future of small-scale fishery management in the southern Colombian Pacific Ocean. Elsevier 2022-02-18 /pmc/articles/PMC8866063/ /pubmed/35243094 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e08975 Text en © 2022 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Research Article
Selvaraj, John Josephraj
Rosero-Henao, Leidy Viviana
Cifuentes-Ossa, María Alejandra
Projecting future changes in distributions of small-scale pelagic fisheries of the southern Colombian Pacific Ocean
title Projecting future changes in distributions of small-scale pelagic fisheries of the southern Colombian Pacific Ocean
title_full Projecting future changes in distributions of small-scale pelagic fisheries of the southern Colombian Pacific Ocean
title_fullStr Projecting future changes in distributions of small-scale pelagic fisheries of the southern Colombian Pacific Ocean
title_full_unstemmed Projecting future changes in distributions of small-scale pelagic fisheries of the southern Colombian Pacific Ocean
title_short Projecting future changes in distributions of small-scale pelagic fisheries of the southern Colombian Pacific Ocean
title_sort projecting future changes in distributions of small-scale pelagic fisheries of the southern colombian pacific ocean
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8866063/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35243094
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e08975
work_keys_str_mv AT selvarajjohnjosephraj projectingfuturechangesindistributionsofsmallscalepelagicfisheriesofthesoutherncolombianpacificocean
AT roserohenaoleidyviviana projectingfuturechangesindistributionsofsmallscalepelagicfisheriesofthesoutherncolombianpacificocean
AT cifuentesossamariaalejandra projectingfuturechangesindistributionsofsmallscalepelagicfisheriesofthesoutherncolombianpacificocean