The performance of phenomic selection depends on the genetic architecture of the target trait

KEY MESSAGE: The phenomic predictive ability depends on the genetic architecture of the target trait, being high for complex traits and low for traits with major QTL. ABSTRACT: Genomic selection is a powerful tool to assist breeding of complex traits, but a limitation is the costs required for genotyping. Recently, phenomic selection has been suggested, which uses spectral data instead of molecular markers as predictors. It was shown to be competitive with genomic prediction, as it achieved predictive abilities as high or even higher than its genomic counterpart. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of phenomic prediction for triticale and the dependency of the predictive ability on the genetic architecture of the target trait. We found that for traits with a complex genetic architecture, like grain yield, phenomic prediction with NIRS data as predictors achieved high predictive abilities and performed better than genomic prediction. By contrast, for mono- or oligogenic traits, for example, yellow rust, marker-based approaches achieved high predictive abilities, while those of phenomic prediction were very low. Compared with molecular markers, the predictive ability obtained using NIRS data was more robust to varying degrees of genetic relatedness between the training and prediction set. Moreover, for grain yield, smaller training sets were required to achieve a similar predictive ability for phenomic prediction than for genomic prediction. In addition, our results illustrate the potential of using field-based spectral data for phenomic prediction. Overall, our result confirmed phenomic prediction as an efficient approach to improve the selection gain for complex traits in plant breeding. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00122-021-03997-7.