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Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030

Recent evidence shows that carbon emissions in China are likely to peak ahead of 2030. However, the social and economic impacts of such an early carbon peak have rarely been assessed. Here we focus on the economic costs and health benefits of different carbon mitigation pathways, considering both po...

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Autores principales: Tang, Rong, Zhao, Jing, Liu, Yifan, Huang, Xin, Zhang, Yanxu, Zhou, Derong, Ding, Aijun, Nielsen, Chris P., Wang, Haikun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8866434/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35197466
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28672-3
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author Tang, Rong
Zhao, Jing
Liu, Yifan
Huang, Xin
Zhang, Yanxu
Zhou, Derong
Ding, Aijun
Nielsen, Chris P.
Wang, Haikun
author_facet Tang, Rong
Zhao, Jing
Liu, Yifan
Huang, Xin
Zhang, Yanxu
Zhou, Derong
Ding, Aijun
Nielsen, Chris P.
Wang, Haikun
author_sort Tang, Rong
collection PubMed
description Recent evidence shows that carbon emissions in China are likely to peak ahead of 2030. However, the social and economic impacts of such an early carbon peak have rarely been assessed. Here we focus on the economic costs and health benefits of different carbon mitigation pathways, considering both possible socio-economic futures and varying ambitions of climate policies. We find that an early peak before 2030 in line with the 1.5 °C target could avoid ~118,000 and ~614,000 PM(2.5) attributable deaths under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1, in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Under the 2 °C target, carbon mitigation costs could be more than offset by health co-benefits in 2050, bringing a net benefit of $393–$3,017 billion (in 2017 USD value). This study not only provides insight into potential health benefits of an early peak in China, but also suggests that similar benefits may result from more ambitious climate targets in other countries.
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spelling pubmed-88664342022-03-17 Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030 Tang, Rong Zhao, Jing Liu, Yifan Huang, Xin Zhang, Yanxu Zhou, Derong Ding, Aijun Nielsen, Chris P. Wang, Haikun Nat Commun Article Recent evidence shows that carbon emissions in China are likely to peak ahead of 2030. However, the social and economic impacts of such an early carbon peak have rarely been assessed. Here we focus on the economic costs and health benefits of different carbon mitigation pathways, considering both possible socio-economic futures and varying ambitions of climate policies. We find that an early peak before 2030 in line with the 1.5 °C target could avoid ~118,000 and ~614,000 PM(2.5) attributable deaths under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1, in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Under the 2 °C target, carbon mitigation costs could be more than offset by health co-benefits in 2050, bringing a net benefit of $393–$3,017 billion (in 2017 USD value). This study not only provides insight into potential health benefits of an early peak in China, but also suggests that similar benefits may result from more ambitious climate targets in other countries. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-02-23 /pmc/articles/PMC8866434/ /pubmed/35197466 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28672-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Tang, Rong
Zhao, Jing
Liu, Yifan
Huang, Xin
Zhang, Yanxu
Zhou, Derong
Ding, Aijun
Nielsen, Chris P.
Wang, Haikun
Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030
title Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030
title_full Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030
title_fullStr Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030
title_full_unstemmed Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030
title_short Air quality and health co-benefits of China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030
title_sort air quality and health co-benefits of china’s carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8866434/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35197466
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28672-3
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