Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Introduction of Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) into Dutch Livestock Farms

Early detection of emerging carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) in food-producing animals is essential to control the spread of CPE. We assessed the risk of CPE introduction from imported livestock, livestock feed, companion animals, hospital patients, and returning travelers into livestock farms in The Netherlands, including (1) broiler, (2) broiler breeder, (3) fattening pig, (4) breeding pig, (5) farrow-to-finish pig, and (6) veal calf farms. The expected annual number of introductions was calculated from the number of farms exposed to each CPE source and the probability that at least one animal in an exposed farm is colonized. The total number of farms with CPE colonization was estimated to be the highest for fattening pig farms, whereas the probability of introduction for an individual farm was the highest for broiler farms. Livestock feed and imported livestock are the most likely sources of CPE introduction into Dutch livestock farms. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the number of fattening pig farms determined the number of high introductions in fattening pigs from feed, and that uncertainty on CPE prevalence impacted the absolute risk estimate for all farm types. The results of this study can be used to inform risk-based surveillance for CPE in livestock farms.