Spatiotemporal Variations of Plague Risk in the Tibetan Plateau from 1954–2016

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Climate variability has influence on plague outbreaks worldwide. Usually, plague cases increase with increasing precipitation. Currently there are many studies on the epidemics of plague in human beings, whereas there are few studies on the dynamic of plague in animal. Nevertheless, animal plague is key in the natural epidemiological cycle of plague. We identified spatiotemporal changes of the plague territories in the Tibetan Plateau only using animal plague records. Our risky plague maps are far superior to the county-based maps used currently and have valuable applications for directly informing conservation and management decisions locally and regionally. ABSTRACT: Plague persists in the plague natural foci today. Although previous studies have found climate drives plague dynamics, quantitative analysis on animal plague risk under climate change remains understudied. Here, we analyzed plague dynamics in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) which is a climate-sensitive area and one of the most severe animal plague areas in China to disentangle variations in marmot plague enzootic foci, diffusion patterns, and their possible links with climate and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, we developed a time-sharing ecological niche modelling framework to identify finer potential plague territories and their temporal epidemic trends. Models were conducted by assembling animal records and multi-source ecophysiological variables with actual ecological effects (both climatic predictors and landscape factors) and driven by matching plague strains to periods corresponding to meteorological datasets. The models identified abundant animal plague territories over the TP and suggested the spatial patterns varied spatiotemporal dimension across the years, undergoing repeated spreading and contractions. Plague risk increased in the 1980s and 2000s, with the risk area increasing by 17.7 and 55.5 thousand km(2), respectively. The 1990s and 2010s were decades of decreased risk, with reductions of 71.9 and 39.5 thousand km(2), respectively. Further factor analysis showed that intrinsic conditions (i.e., elevation, soil, and geochemical landscape) provided fundamental niches. In contrast, climatic conditions, especially precipitation, led to niche differentiation and resulted in varied spatial patterns. Additionally, while increased human interference may temporarily reduce plague risks, there is a strong possibility of recurrence. This study reshaped the plague distribution at multiple time scales in the TP and revealed multifactorial synergistic effects on the spreading and contraction of plague foci, confirming that TP plague is increasingly sensitive to climate change. These findings may facilitate groups to take measures to combat the plague threats and prevent potential future human plague from occurring.