Risk Stratification Using a Novel Nomogram for 2190 EGFR-Mutant NSCLC Patients Receiving the First or Second Generation EGFR-TKI

SIMPLE SUMMARY: No comprehensive and simple prognostic model based on pretreatment factors exists for patients with epidermal growth factor receptor mutation-positive (EGFRm+) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) undergoing EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs). A total of 11 independent prognostic factors were identified by multivariate analysis, including performance status, morphology, mutation, stage, EGFR-TKIs, and metastasis to liver, brain, bone, pleura, adrenal gland, and distant lymph nodes. We established a nomogram based on independent pretreatment factors and used it to stratify EGFRm+ NSCLC patients undergoing EGFR-TKI treatment into five different risk groups for survival using recursive partitioning analysis. The performance of this nomogram was good and feasible, providing clinicians and patients with additional information for evaluating therapeutic options. ABSTRACT: Epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) are the standard treatment for EGFR mutation-positive (EGFRm+) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study aimed to create a novel nomogram to help physicians suggest the optimal treatment for patients with EGFRm+ NSCLC. Records of 2190 patients with EGFRm+ NSCLC cancer who were treated with EGFR-TKIs (including gefitinib, erlotinib, and afatinib) at the branches of a hospital group between 2011 and 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. Their clinicopathological characteristics, clinical tumor response, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) data were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify potential prognostic factors to create a nomogram for risk stratification. Univariate analysis identified 14 prognostic factors, and multivariate analysis confirmed the pretreatment independent factors, including Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, morphology, mutation, stage, EGFR-TKIs (gefitinib, erlotinib, or afatinib), and metastasis to liver, brain, bone, pleura, adrenal gland, and distant lymph nodes. Based on these factors, a novel nomogram was created and used to stratify the patients into five different risk groups for PFS and OS using recursive partitioning analysis. This risk stratification can provide additional information to clinicians and patients when determining the optimal therapeutic options for EGFRm+ NSCLC.