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Medium-Term Forecast of Government Spending on the Unemployment Social Protection System in Russia in the Conditions of Economic Recession

A simulation model of the Russian unemployment social protection system is developed and used to study the impact of the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, demographic processes, and the increase in retirement age on federal spending on unemployment benefits. Trends of overall and regi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Baskakova, M. E., Baskakov, V. N., Yanenko, E. A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Pleiades Publishing 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8874292/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35233157
http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S107570072201004X
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author Baskakova, M. E.
Baskakov, V. N.
Yanenko, E. A.
author_facet Baskakova, M. E.
Baskakov, V. N.
Yanenko, E. A.
author_sort Baskakova, M. E.
collection PubMed
description A simulation model of the Russian unemployment social protection system is developed and used to study the impact of the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, demographic processes, and the increase in retirement age on federal spending on unemployment benefits. Trends of overall and registered unemployment across various socio-demographic groups in 1992–2020 are analyzed, with special attention paid to periods of economic recession and recovery. The identified patterns are used to develop modeling scenarios. Calculations show that in the unfavorable scenario government spending on unemployment benefits will increase  many times. As a possible solution to the problem, it is proposed to convert the unemployment social protection system to insurance principles. The time frame in which reforming the system would be less expensive for the federal budget is defined.
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spelling pubmed-88742922022-02-25 Medium-Term Forecast of Government Spending on the Unemployment Social Protection System in Russia in the Conditions of Economic Recession Baskakova, M. E. Baskakov, V. N. Yanenko, E. A. Stud Russ Econ Dev Labor and Employment A simulation model of the Russian unemployment social protection system is developed and used to study the impact of the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, demographic processes, and the increase in retirement age on federal spending on unemployment benefits. Trends of overall and registered unemployment across various socio-demographic groups in 1992–2020 are analyzed, with special attention paid to periods of economic recession and recovery. The identified patterns are used to develop modeling scenarios. Calculations show that in the unfavorable scenario government spending on unemployment benefits will increase  many times. As a possible solution to the problem, it is proposed to convert the unemployment social protection system to insurance principles. The time frame in which reforming the system would be less expensive for the federal budget is defined. Pleiades Publishing 2022-02-25 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC8874292/ /pubmed/35233157 http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S107570072201004X Text en © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd. 2022, ISSN 1075-7007, Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2022, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp. 45–54. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2022.Russian Text © The Author(s), 2022. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Labor and Employment
Baskakova, M. E.
Baskakov, V. N.
Yanenko, E. A.
Medium-Term Forecast of Government Spending on the Unemployment Social Protection System in Russia in the Conditions of Economic Recession
title Medium-Term Forecast of Government Spending on the Unemployment Social Protection System in Russia in the Conditions of Economic Recession
title_full Medium-Term Forecast of Government Spending on the Unemployment Social Protection System in Russia in the Conditions of Economic Recession
title_fullStr Medium-Term Forecast of Government Spending on the Unemployment Social Protection System in Russia in the Conditions of Economic Recession
title_full_unstemmed Medium-Term Forecast of Government Spending on the Unemployment Social Protection System in Russia in the Conditions of Economic Recession
title_short Medium-Term Forecast of Government Spending on the Unemployment Social Protection System in Russia in the Conditions of Economic Recession
title_sort medium-term forecast of government spending on the unemployment social protection system in russia in the conditions of economic recession
topic Labor and Employment
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8874292/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35233157
http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/S107570072201004X
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