A Novel Integrated Biomarker for Evaluation of Risk and Severity of Coronary Atherosclerosis, and Its Validation

Objective: To assess the feasibility of a combination of biochemical and imaging parameters for estimation of risk and severity of coronary atherosclerosis (CA), and to verify the created integrated biomarker (i-BIO) on independent cohort. Methods: Two cohorts of patients admitted to the hospital for coronary angiography and ultrasound carotid dopplerography were enrolled into the study (n = 205 and n = 216, respectively). The extent of CA was assessed by Gensini Score (GS). Results: According to GS, participants were distributed as follows: atherosclerosis-free (GS = 0), CA of any stage (GS > 0), subclinical CA (GS < 35), severe CA (GS ≥ 35). Based on the analysis of mathematical models, including biochemical and imaging parameters, we selected and combined the most significant variables as i-BIO. The ability of i-BIO to detect the presence and severity of CA was estimated using ROC-analysis with cut-off points determination. Risk of any CA (GS > 0) at i-BIO > 4 was 7.3 times higher than in those with i-BIO ≤ 4; risk of severe CA (GS ≥ 35) at i-BIO ≥ 9 was 3.1 times higher than at i-BIO < 9. Results on the tested cohort confirmed these findings. Conclusions: The i-BIO > 4 detected CA (GS > 0) with sensitivity of 87.9%, i-BIO ≥ 9 excluded patients without severe CA (GS < 35), specificity 79.8%. Validation of i-BIO confirmed the feasibility of i-BIO > 4 to separate patients with any CA with sensitivity 76.2%, and of i-BIO ≥ 9 to exclude atherosclerosis-free subjects with specificity of 84.0%.