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Causal Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the Number of COVID-19 Cases under COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Study Using the Synthetic Control Method

Previous studies have not assessed the causal effect of the Olympic Games on the spread of pandemics. Using the synthetic control method and the national public city data in Japan recorded from February to September 2021, we estimated the causal effects of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games...

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Autores principales: Yamamoto, Norio, Mitsuhashi, Toshiharu, Tsuchihashi, Yuuki, Yorifuji, Takashi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8879008/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35207697
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jpm12020209
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author Yamamoto, Norio
Mitsuhashi, Toshiharu
Tsuchihashi, Yuuki
Yorifuji, Takashi
author_facet Yamamoto, Norio
Mitsuhashi, Toshiharu
Tsuchihashi, Yuuki
Yorifuji, Takashi
author_sort Yamamoto, Norio
collection PubMed
description Previous studies have not assessed the causal effect of the Olympic Games on the spread of pandemics. Using the synthetic control method and the national public city data in Japan recorded from February to September 2021, we estimated the causal effects of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. The difference between the number of COVID-19 cases in Tokyo and a counterfactual “synthetic Tokyo” (created using synthetic control method) after the opening of the Tokyo 2020 Games (23 July 2021) widened gradually and then considerably over time. It was predicted that the Tokyo 2020 Games increased the number of COVID-19 cases in Tokyo by approximately 469.4 per 100,000 population from the opening of the event to 30 September. However, sensitivity analysis of the ratio of the pre- and post-game root mean square prediction errors using regression weights did not suggest robustness. Our results showed that the Tokyo 2020 Games probably increased the number of COVID-19 cases even under preventive regulations; however, the extent of this increase was difficult to estimate clearly due to an overlap with the fifth wave associated with the Delta variant.
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spelling pubmed-88790082022-02-26 Causal Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the Number of COVID-19 Cases under COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Study Using the Synthetic Control Method Yamamoto, Norio Mitsuhashi, Toshiharu Tsuchihashi, Yuuki Yorifuji, Takashi J Pers Med Article Previous studies have not assessed the causal effect of the Olympic Games on the spread of pandemics. Using the synthetic control method and the national public city data in Japan recorded from February to September 2021, we estimated the causal effects of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. The difference between the number of COVID-19 cases in Tokyo and a counterfactual “synthetic Tokyo” (created using synthetic control method) after the opening of the Tokyo 2020 Games (23 July 2021) widened gradually and then considerably over time. It was predicted that the Tokyo 2020 Games increased the number of COVID-19 cases in Tokyo by approximately 469.4 per 100,000 population from the opening of the event to 30 September. However, sensitivity analysis of the ratio of the pre- and post-game root mean square prediction errors using regression weights did not suggest robustness. Our results showed that the Tokyo 2020 Games probably increased the number of COVID-19 cases even under preventive regulations; however, the extent of this increase was difficult to estimate clearly due to an overlap with the fifth wave associated with the Delta variant. MDPI 2022-02-03 /pmc/articles/PMC8879008/ /pubmed/35207697 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jpm12020209 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Yamamoto, Norio
Mitsuhashi, Toshiharu
Tsuchihashi, Yuuki
Yorifuji, Takashi
Causal Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the Number of COVID-19 Cases under COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Study Using the Synthetic Control Method
title Causal Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the Number of COVID-19 Cases under COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Study Using the Synthetic Control Method
title_full Causal Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the Number of COVID-19 Cases under COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Study Using the Synthetic Control Method
title_fullStr Causal Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the Number of COVID-19 Cases under COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Study Using the Synthetic Control Method
title_full_unstemmed Causal Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the Number of COVID-19 Cases under COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Study Using the Synthetic Control Method
title_short Causal Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the Number of COVID-19 Cases under COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Study Using the Synthetic Control Method
title_sort causal effect of the tokyo 2020 olympic and paralympic games on the number of covid-19 cases under covid-19 pandemic: an ecological study using the synthetic control method
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8879008/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35207697
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jpm12020209
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