Using an Administrative and Clinical Database to Determine the Early Spread of COVID-19 at the US Department of Veterans Affairs during the Beginning of the 2019–2020 Flu Season: A Retrospective Longitudinal Study

Background. Previous studies examining the early spread of COVID-19 have used influenza-like illnesses (ILIs) to determine the early spread of COVID-19. We used COVID-19 case definition to identify COVID-like symptoms (CLS) independently of other influenza-like illnesses (ILIs). Methods. Using data from Emergency Department (ED) visits at VA Medical Centers in CA, TX, and FL, we compared weekly rates of CLS, ILIs, and non-influenza ILIs encounters during five consecutive flu seasons (2015–2020) and estimated the risk of developing each illness during the first 23 weeks of the 2019–2020 season compared to previous seasons. Results. Patients with CLS were significantly more likely to visit the ED during the first 23 weeks of the 2019–2020 compared to prior seasons, while ED visits for influenza and non-influenza ILIs did not differ substantially. Adjusted CLS risk was significantly lower for all seasons relative to the 2019–2020 season: RR15–16 = 0.72, 0.75, 0.72; RR16–17 = 0.81, 0.77, 0.79; RR17–18 = 0.80, 0.89, 0.83; RR18–19 = 0.82, 0.96, 0.81, in CA, TX, and FL, respectively. Conclusions. The observed increase in ED visits for CLS indicates the likely spread of COVID-19 in the US earlier than previously reported. VA data could potentially help identify emerging infectious diseases and supplement existing syndromic surveillance systems.