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Modeling human migration driven by changing mindset, agglomeration, social ties, and the environment

Migration is an adaptation strategy to unfavorable conditions and is governed by a complex set of socio-economic and environmental drivers. Here we identified important drivers relatively underrepresented in many migration models—CHanging mindset, Agglomeration, Social ties, and the Environment (CHA...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Suarez, Gonzalo, Muneepeerakul, Rachata
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8884484/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35226659
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264223
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author Suarez, Gonzalo
Muneepeerakul, Rachata
author_facet Suarez, Gonzalo
Muneepeerakul, Rachata
author_sort Suarez, Gonzalo
collection PubMed
description Migration is an adaptation strategy to unfavorable conditions and is governed by a complex set of socio-economic and environmental drivers. Here we identified important drivers relatively underrepresented in many migration models—CHanging mindset, Agglomeration, Social ties, and the Environment (CHASE)—and asked: How does the interplay between these drivers influence transient dynamics and long-term outcomes of migration? We addressed this question by developing and analyzing a parsimonious Markov chain model. Our findings suggest that these drivers interact in nonlinear and complex ways. The system exhibits legacy effects, highlighting the importance of including migrants’ changing priorities. The increased characteristic population size of the system counter-intuitively leads to fewer surviving cities, and this effect is mediated by how fast migrants change their mindsets and how strong the social ties are. Strong social ties result in less diverse populations across cities, but this effect is influenced by how many cities remain. To our knowledge, this is the first time that these drivers are incorporated in one coherent, mechanistic, parsimonious model and the effects of their interplay on migration systematically studied. The complex interplay underscores the need to incorporate these drivers into mechanistic migration models and implement such models for real-world cases.
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spelling pubmed-88844842022-03-01 Modeling human migration driven by changing mindset, agglomeration, social ties, and the environment Suarez, Gonzalo Muneepeerakul, Rachata PLoS One Research Article Migration is an adaptation strategy to unfavorable conditions and is governed by a complex set of socio-economic and environmental drivers. Here we identified important drivers relatively underrepresented in many migration models—CHanging mindset, Agglomeration, Social ties, and the Environment (CHASE)—and asked: How does the interplay between these drivers influence transient dynamics and long-term outcomes of migration? We addressed this question by developing and analyzing a parsimonious Markov chain model. Our findings suggest that these drivers interact in nonlinear and complex ways. The system exhibits legacy effects, highlighting the importance of including migrants’ changing priorities. The increased characteristic population size of the system counter-intuitively leads to fewer surviving cities, and this effect is mediated by how fast migrants change their mindsets and how strong the social ties are. Strong social ties result in less diverse populations across cities, but this effect is influenced by how many cities remain. To our knowledge, this is the first time that these drivers are incorporated in one coherent, mechanistic, parsimonious model and the effects of their interplay on migration systematically studied. The complex interplay underscores the need to incorporate these drivers into mechanistic migration models and implement such models for real-world cases. Public Library of Science 2022-02-28 /pmc/articles/PMC8884484/ /pubmed/35226659 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264223 Text en © 2022 Suarez, Muneepeerakul https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Suarez, Gonzalo
Muneepeerakul, Rachata
Modeling human migration driven by changing mindset, agglomeration, social ties, and the environment
title Modeling human migration driven by changing mindset, agglomeration, social ties, and the environment
title_full Modeling human migration driven by changing mindset, agglomeration, social ties, and the environment
title_fullStr Modeling human migration driven by changing mindset, agglomeration, social ties, and the environment
title_full_unstemmed Modeling human migration driven by changing mindset, agglomeration, social ties, and the environment
title_short Modeling human migration driven by changing mindset, agglomeration, social ties, and the environment
title_sort modeling human migration driven by changing mindset, agglomeration, social ties, and the environment
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8884484/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35226659
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264223
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