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Agent based simulation with data driven parameterization for evaluation of social acceptance of a geothermal development: a case study in Tsuchiyu, Fukushima, Japan

Development of geothermal power plants and local geothermal energy initiatives have lagged due to the social problems such as conflicts with stakeholders such as Onsen (Hot Spa) owners, despite the abundant geothermal resources. Study area was Tsuchiyu Onsen in Fukushima prefecture, Tohoku (Northeas...

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Autores principales: Masuda, Shuntaro, Bahr, Kyle, Tsuchiya, Noriyoshi, Takemori, Tatsuya
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8885700/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35228592
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-07272-7
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author Masuda, Shuntaro
Bahr, Kyle
Tsuchiya, Noriyoshi
Takemori, Tatsuya
author_facet Masuda, Shuntaro
Bahr, Kyle
Tsuchiya, Noriyoshi
Takemori, Tatsuya
author_sort Masuda, Shuntaro
collection PubMed
description Development of geothermal power plants and local geothermal energy initiatives have lagged due to the social problems such as conflicts with stakeholders such as Onsen (Hot Spa) owners, despite the abundant geothermal resources. Study area was Tsuchiyu Onsen in Fukushima prefecture, Tohoku (Northeast) District, Japan, where the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Nuclear Accident occurred in 2011, and the reconstruction and local initiatives of geothermal energy were still unclear. Agent-based modeling is an effective methodology for modeling and analysis of opinion formation. Parameter estimation method was proposed to extract appropriate parameters from various factors through a Bayesian Network. The characteristics of stakeholders and communities that affected opinion formation in the survey area were successfully extracted. Here we show the sufficient methodology to quantify the characteristics of each person using survey data, and to extract the parameters of the agent by data-driven inverse analysis. By using this methodology, we could reproduce opinion diversity, which is a property of opinion formation in real communities. This result suggests that the model replicates the actual formation of opinion in Tsuchiyu, where the economy was boosted by the construction of a binary cycle power plant.
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spelling pubmed-88857002022-03-01 Agent based simulation with data driven parameterization for evaluation of social acceptance of a geothermal development: a case study in Tsuchiyu, Fukushima, Japan Masuda, Shuntaro Bahr, Kyle Tsuchiya, Noriyoshi Takemori, Tatsuya Sci Rep Article Development of geothermal power plants and local geothermal energy initiatives have lagged due to the social problems such as conflicts with stakeholders such as Onsen (Hot Spa) owners, despite the abundant geothermal resources. Study area was Tsuchiyu Onsen in Fukushima prefecture, Tohoku (Northeast) District, Japan, where the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Nuclear Accident occurred in 2011, and the reconstruction and local initiatives of geothermal energy were still unclear. Agent-based modeling is an effective methodology for modeling and analysis of opinion formation. Parameter estimation method was proposed to extract appropriate parameters from various factors through a Bayesian Network. The characteristics of stakeholders and communities that affected opinion formation in the survey area were successfully extracted. Here we show the sufficient methodology to quantify the characteristics of each person using survey data, and to extract the parameters of the agent by data-driven inverse analysis. By using this methodology, we could reproduce opinion diversity, which is a property of opinion formation in real communities. This result suggests that the model replicates the actual formation of opinion in Tsuchiyu, where the economy was boosted by the construction of a binary cycle power plant. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-02-28 /pmc/articles/PMC8885700/ /pubmed/35228592 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-07272-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Masuda, Shuntaro
Bahr, Kyle
Tsuchiya, Noriyoshi
Takemori, Tatsuya
Agent based simulation with data driven parameterization for evaluation of social acceptance of a geothermal development: a case study in Tsuchiyu, Fukushima, Japan
title Agent based simulation with data driven parameterization for evaluation of social acceptance of a geothermal development: a case study in Tsuchiyu, Fukushima, Japan
title_full Agent based simulation with data driven parameterization for evaluation of social acceptance of a geothermal development: a case study in Tsuchiyu, Fukushima, Japan
title_fullStr Agent based simulation with data driven parameterization for evaluation of social acceptance of a geothermal development: a case study in Tsuchiyu, Fukushima, Japan
title_full_unstemmed Agent based simulation with data driven parameterization for evaluation of social acceptance of a geothermal development: a case study in Tsuchiyu, Fukushima, Japan
title_short Agent based simulation with data driven parameterization for evaluation of social acceptance of a geothermal development: a case study in Tsuchiyu, Fukushima, Japan
title_sort agent based simulation with data driven parameterization for evaluation of social acceptance of a geothermal development: a case study in tsuchiyu, fukushima, japan
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8885700/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35228592
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-07272-7
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