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Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India

The overarching goal of this paper is to shed light on the human influence on the changing patterns of heat waves in India using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The HWMId obtained from the observational data sets shows a large increase in the heat waves during the past decades. Investig...

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Autores principales: Kishore, P., Basha, Ghouse, Venkat Ratnam, M., AghaKouchak, Amir, Sun, Qiaohong, Velicogna, Isabella, Ouarda, T. B. J. M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8885895/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35228631
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-07373-3
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author Kishore, P.
Basha, Ghouse
Venkat Ratnam, M.
AghaKouchak, Amir
Sun, Qiaohong
Velicogna, Isabella
Ouarda, T. B. J. M.
author_facet Kishore, P.
Basha, Ghouse
Venkat Ratnam, M.
AghaKouchak, Amir
Sun, Qiaohong
Velicogna, Isabella
Ouarda, T. B. J. M.
author_sort Kishore, P.
collection PubMed
description The overarching goal of this paper is to shed light on the human influence on the changing patterns of heat waves in India using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The HWMId obtained from the observational data sets shows a large increase in the heat waves during the past decades. Investigating the effects of natural (e.g., solar variations and volcanic forcings) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, anthropogenic, land use, and land cover) forcings revealed that the anthropogenic factors have cause a two-fold increase in the occurrence probability of severe heat waves in central and mid-southern India during twentieth century. The spatial distribution of maximum HWMId values under natural and all forcings (including anthropogenic) indicates that in most places human activities have increases the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme heat waves. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, the risk of heat waves is projected to increase tenfold during the twenty-first century. More than ~ 70% of the land areas in India is projected to be influenced by heat waves with magnitudes greater than 9. Furthermore, we find a significant relationship between heat waves and deficits in precipitation. Results show that concurrent heat waves and droughts are projected to increase in most places in India during the twenty-first century.
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spelling pubmed-88858952022-03-03 Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India Kishore, P. Basha, Ghouse Venkat Ratnam, M. AghaKouchak, Amir Sun, Qiaohong Velicogna, Isabella Ouarda, T. B. J. M. Sci Rep Article The overarching goal of this paper is to shed light on the human influence on the changing patterns of heat waves in India using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The HWMId obtained from the observational data sets shows a large increase in the heat waves during the past decades. Investigating the effects of natural (e.g., solar variations and volcanic forcings) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, anthropogenic, land use, and land cover) forcings revealed that the anthropogenic factors have cause a two-fold increase in the occurrence probability of severe heat waves in central and mid-southern India during twentieth century. The spatial distribution of maximum HWMId values under natural and all forcings (including anthropogenic) indicates that in most places human activities have increases the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme heat waves. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, the risk of heat waves is projected to increase tenfold during the twenty-first century. More than ~ 70% of the land areas in India is projected to be influenced by heat waves with magnitudes greater than 9. Furthermore, we find a significant relationship between heat waves and deficits in precipitation. Results show that concurrent heat waves and droughts are projected to increase in most places in India during the twenty-first century. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-02-28 /pmc/articles/PMC8885895/ /pubmed/35228631 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-07373-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Kishore, P.
Basha, Ghouse
Venkat Ratnam, M.
AghaKouchak, Amir
Sun, Qiaohong
Velicogna, Isabella
Ouarda, T. B. J. M.
Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India
title Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India
title_full Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India
title_fullStr Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India
title_full_unstemmed Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India
title_short Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India
title_sort anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over india
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8885895/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35228631
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-07373-3
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