Prognostic utility of systemic inflammatory markers and chronic hepatitis C virus infection status in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with local ablation

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has high incidence and mortality worldwide. Local ablation using radiofrequency ablation (RFA) or microwave ablation (MWA) is potentially curative for early-stage HCC with outcomes comparable to surgical resection. We explored the influence of demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors on outcomes of HCC patients receiving ablation. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 221 HCC patients receiving local ablation at Mayo Clinic between January 2000 and October 2018, comprising 140 RFA and 81 MWA. Prognostic factors determining overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were identified using multivariate analysis. RESULTS: There was no clinically significant difference in OS or DFS between RFA and MWA. In multivariate analysis of OS, pre-ablation lymphocyte-monocyte ratio [Hazard ratio (HR) 0.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–0.84, P = 0.0001], MELD score [HR 1.12, 95%CI 1.068–1.17, P < 0.0001], tumor number [HR 1.23, 95%CI 1.041–1.46, P = 0.015] and tumor size [HR 1.18, 95%CI 1.015–1.37, P = 0.031] were clinically-significant prognostic factors. Among HCC patients with chronic hepatitis C (HCV) infection, positive HCV PCR at HCC diagnosis was associated with 1.4-fold higher hazard of death, with 5-year survival of 32.8% vs 53.6% in HCV PCR-negative patients. Regarding DFS, pre-ablation lymphocyte-monocyte ratio [HR 0.77, 95%CI 0.66–0.9, P = 0.001], MELD score [HR 1.06, 95%CI 1.022–1.11, P = 0.002], Log(2) AFP [HR 1.11, 95%CI 1.033–1.2, P = 0.005], tumor number [HR 1.29, 95%CI 1.078–1.53, P = 0.005] and tumor size [HR 1.25, 95%CI 1.043–1.51 P = 0.016] were independently prognostic. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-ablation systemic inflammation represented by lymphocyte-monocyte ratio is significantly associated with OS and DFS in HCC patients treated with local ablation. HCV viremia is associated with poor OS. Tumor biology represented by tumor number and size are strongly prognostic for OS and DFS while AFP is significantly associated with DFS only.