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Calculating earthquake damage building by building: the case of the city of Cologne, Germany

The creation of building exposure models for seismic risk assessment is frequently challenging due to the lack of availability of detailed information on building structures. Different strategies have been developed in recent years to overcome this, including the use of census data, remote sensing i...

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Autores principales: Nievas, Cecilia I., Pilz, Marco, Prehn, Karsten, Schorlemmer, Danijel, Weatherill, Graeme, Cotton, Fabrice
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8887924/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35250417
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01303-w
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author Nievas, Cecilia I.
Pilz, Marco
Prehn, Karsten
Schorlemmer, Danijel
Weatherill, Graeme
Cotton, Fabrice
author_facet Nievas, Cecilia I.
Pilz, Marco
Prehn, Karsten
Schorlemmer, Danijel
Weatherill, Graeme
Cotton, Fabrice
author_sort Nievas, Cecilia I.
collection PubMed
description The creation of building exposure models for seismic risk assessment is frequently challenging due to the lack of availability of detailed information on building structures. Different strategies have been developed in recent years to overcome this, including the use of census data, remote sensing imagery and volunteered graphic information (VGI). This paper presents the development of a building-by-building exposure model based exclusively on openly available datasets, including both VGI and census statistics, which are defined at different levels of spatial resolution and for different moments in time. The initial model stemming purely from building-level data is enriched with statistics aggregated at the neighbourhood and city level by means of a Monte Carlo simulation that enables the generation of full realisations of damage estimates when using the exposure model in the context of an earthquake scenario calculation. Though applicable to any other region of interest where analogous datasets are available, the workflow and approach followed are explained by focusing on the case of the German city of Cologne, for which a scenario earthquake is defined and the potential damage is calculated. The resulting exposure model and damage estimates are presented, and it is shown that the latter are broadly consistent with damage data from the 1978 Albstadt earthquake, notwithstanding the differences in the scenario. Through this real-world application we demonstrate the potential of VGI and open data to be used for exposure modelling for natural risk assessment, when combined with suitable knowledge on building fragility and accounting for the inherent uncertainties.
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spelling pubmed-88879242022-03-02 Calculating earthquake damage building by building: the case of the city of Cologne, Germany Nievas, Cecilia I. Pilz, Marco Prehn, Karsten Schorlemmer, Danijel Weatherill, Graeme Cotton, Fabrice Bull Earthq Eng Original Article The creation of building exposure models for seismic risk assessment is frequently challenging due to the lack of availability of detailed information on building structures. Different strategies have been developed in recent years to overcome this, including the use of census data, remote sensing imagery and volunteered graphic information (VGI). This paper presents the development of a building-by-building exposure model based exclusively on openly available datasets, including both VGI and census statistics, which are defined at different levels of spatial resolution and for different moments in time. The initial model stemming purely from building-level data is enriched with statistics aggregated at the neighbourhood and city level by means of a Monte Carlo simulation that enables the generation of full realisations of damage estimates when using the exposure model in the context of an earthquake scenario calculation. Though applicable to any other region of interest where analogous datasets are available, the workflow and approach followed are explained by focusing on the case of the German city of Cologne, for which a scenario earthquake is defined and the potential damage is calculated. The resulting exposure model and damage estimates are presented, and it is shown that the latter are broadly consistent with damage data from the 1978 Albstadt earthquake, notwithstanding the differences in the scenario. Through this real-world application we demonstrate the potential of VGI and open data to be used for exposure modelling for natural risk assessment, when combined with suitable knowledge on building fragility and accounting for the inherent uncertainties. Springer Netherlands 2022-01-10 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC8887924/ /pubmed/35250417 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01303-w Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Original Article
Nievas, Cecilia I.
Pilz, Marco
Prehn, Karsten
Schorlemmer, Danijel
Weatherill, Graeme
Cotton, Fabrice
Calculating earthquake damage building by building: the case of the city of Cologne, Germany
title Calculating earthquake damage building by building: the case of the city of Cologne, Germany
title_full Calculating earthquake damage building by building: the case of the city of Cologne, Germany
title_fullStr Calculating earthquake damage building by building: the case of the city of Cologne, Germany
title_full_unstemmed Calculating earthquake damage building by building: the case of the city of Cologne, Germany
title_short Calculating earthquake damage building by building: the case of the city of Cologne, Germany
title_sort calculating earthquake damage building by building: the case of the city of cologne, germany
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8887924/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35250417
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01303-w
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