Cargando…

Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model

This paper proposes a time-series stochastic socioeconomic model for analyzing the impact of the pandemic on the regulated distribution electricity market. The proposed methodology combines the optimized tariff model (socioeconomic market model) and the random walk concept (risk assessment technique...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Costa, Vinicius B.F., Pereira, Lígia C., Andrade, Jorge V.B., Bonatto, Benedito D.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8888072/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35250149
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118848
_version_ 1784661050352730112
author Costa, Vinicius B.F.
Pereira, Lígia C.
Andrade, Jorge V.B.
Bonatto, Benedito D.
author_facet Costa, Vinicius B.F.
Pereira, Lígia C.
Andrade, Jorge V.B.
Bonatto, Benedito D.
author_sort Costa, Vinicius B.F.
collection PubMed
description This paper proposes a time-series stochastic socioeconomic model for analyzing the impact of the pandemic on the regulated distribution electricity market. The proposed methodology combines the optimized tariff model (socioeconomic market model) and the random walk concept (risk assessment technique) to ensure robustness/accuracy. The model enables both a past and future analysis of the impact of the pandemic, which is essential to prepare regulatory agencies beforehand and allow enough time for the development of efficient public policies. By applying it to six Brazilian concession areas, results demonstrate that consumers have been/will be heavily affected in general, mainly due to the high electricity tariffs that took place with the pandemic, overcoming the natural trend of the market. In contrast, the model demonstrates that the pandemic did not/will not significantly harm power distribution companies in general, mainly due to the loan granted by the regulator agency, named COVID-account. Socioeconomic welfare losses averaging 500 (MR$/month) are estimated for the equivalent concession area, i.e., the sum of the six analyzed concession areas. Furthermore, this paper proposes a stochastic optimization problem to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the electricity market over time, considering the interests of consumers, power distribution companies, and the government. Results demonstrate that it is successful as the tariffs provided by the algorithm compensate for the reduction in demand while increasing the socioeconomic welfare of the market.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8888072
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2022
publisher Elsevier Ltd.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-88880722022-03-02 Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model Costa, Vinicius B.F. Pereira, Lígia C. Andrade, Jorge V.B. Bonatto, Benedito D. Appl Energy Article This paper proposes a time-series stochastic socioeconomic model for analyzing the impact of the pandemic on the regulated distribution electricity market. The proposed methodology combines the optimized tariff model (socioeconomic market model) and the random walk concept (risk assessment technique) to ensure robustness/accuracy. The model enables both a past and future analysis of the impact of the pandemic, which is essential to prepare regulatory agencies beforehand and allow enough time for the development of efficient public policies. By applying it to six Brazilian concession areas, results demonstrate that consumers have been/will be heavily affected in general, mainly due to the high electricity tariffs that took place with the pandemic, overcoming the natural trend of the market. In contrast, the model demonstrates that the pandemic did not/will not significantly harm power distribution companies in general, mainly due to the loan granted by the regulator agency, named COVID-account. Socioeconomic welfare losses averaging 500 (MR$/month) are estimated for the equivalent concession area, i.e., the sum of the six analyzed concession areas. Furthermore, this paper proposes a stochastic optimization problem to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the electricity market over time, considering the interests of consumers, power distribution companies, and the government. Results demonstrate that it is successful as the tariffs provided by the algorithm compensate for the reduction in demand while increasing the socioeconomic welfare of the market. Elsevier Ltd. 2022-05-01 2022-03-02 /pmc/articles/PMC8888072/ /pubmed/35250149 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118848 Text en © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Costa, Vinicius B.F.
Pereira, Lígia C.
Andrade, Jorge V.B.
Bonatto, Benedito D.
Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model
title Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model
title_full Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model
title_fullStr Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model
title_full_unstemmed Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model
title_short Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model
title_sort future assessment of the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8888072/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35250149
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118848
work_keys_str_mv AT costaviniciusbf futureassessmentoftheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheelectricitymarketbasedonastochasticsocioeconomicmodel
AT pereiraligiac futureassessmentoftheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheelectricitymarketbasedonastochasticsocioeconomicmodel
AT andradejorgevb futureassessmentoftheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheelectricitymarketbasedonastochasticsocioeconomicmodel
AT bonattobeneditod futureassessmentoftheimpactofthecovid19pandemicontheelectricitymarketbasedonastochasticsocioeconomicmodel