Models to Predict Development or Recurence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) in Patients with Advanced Hepatic Fibrosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States (U.S.).(1) The purpose of this review is to highlight published models that predict development of HCC and estimate risk of HCC recurrence after treatments. RECENT FINDINGS: There have been several models created for both de novo HCC and HCC recurrence, with the more recent models using a combination of age, sex, decompensation, and laboratory values (platelet count, albumin, bilirubin), and liver disease etiology to predict both 5 and 10-year HCC incidence. For chronic hepatitis C, sustained virologic response has been a useful component of understanding HCC risk reduction. BMI and diabetes have been utilized in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) models to predict HCC risk. For HCC recurrence after treatment (for both surgical resection and liver transplant), tumor size and number, vascular invasion, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) are all components of HCC recurrence risk models. SUMMARY: Although numerous HCC risk prediction models have been established over the last several years, challenges remain including how to best incorporate these models into clinical practice, improve surveillance for NAFLD-HCC development, and determine timing and duration of post-resection recurrence surveillance.