An Unsteady-State Productivity Model and Main Influences on Low-Permeability Water-Bearing Gas Reservoirs at Ultrahigh Temperature/High Pressure

[Image: see text] Currently, there is insufficient knowledge on the development of China’s low-permeability gas reservoirs under ultrahigh-temperature and high-pressure conditions; furthermore, the actual development process is difficult and has high technical demands. For example, the Ledong block in the South China Sea is a typical gas reservoir characterized using ultrahigh temperature (190 °C), high pressure (90 MPa), high water production, and low permeability (less than 1 mD). However, it is difficult to determine the factors influencing its production capacity, and the application of the traditional production capacity model is problematic because of the production of water. Accordingly, this study, which is based on the seepage theory, considers the influence of water production on the productivity of a single well; this study establishes an evaluation method for a low-permeability water-bearing gas reservoir vertical well (i.e., a highly deviated well) to determine how an unsteady state affects productivity. This method comprehensively considers stress sensitivity, initial pressure gradient, gas–water permeability, formation thickness, absolute permeability, supply radius, discharge radius, and well deviation angles to clarify the main factors affecting the productivity of single wells. Statistical methods are used to calculate and analyze the key influential factors, and this study provides quantitative evaluation methods to understand the productivity (and its influencing factors) of both vertical and highly deviated wells and the law of productivity decline. The model calculates the unblocked flow rate for 18 years as 319 × 10(4) m(3)/d. Compared with the actual production unblocked flow rate of 332 × 10(4) m(3)/d, the average error is 3.9%, which is within the allowed engineering range. Research shows the following order of factor influence on productivity: produced water–gas volume ratio > permeability > stress sensitivity coefficient > reservoir thickness > start-up pressure gradient > well deviation angle > discharge radius. Water saturation is the main factor affecting the unsteady-state productivity of gas wells in low-permeability gas reservoirs. In this study, with a production time of 100 days, the water saturation increases from 45 to 85%, and the open flow of the gas well decreases significantly from 30.1 × 10(4) to 1.6 × 10(4) m(3)/d, which is a decrease of 94.7%. Moreover, a continuous increase in the stress sensitivity coefficient, start-up pressure gradient, and water saturation caused a leftward shift in the inflow performance relationship curves of the modeled gas wells, whereas their production decreased.