Accuracy and Prognostic Role of NCCT-ASPECTS Depend on Time from Acute Stroke Symptom-onset for both Human and Machine-learning Based Evaluation

PURPOSE: We hypothesize that the detectability of early ischemic changes on non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) is limited in hyperacute stroke for both human and machine-learning based evaluation. In short onset-time-to-imaging (OTI), the CT angiography collateral status may identify fast stroke progressors better than early ischemic changes quantified by ASPECTS. METHODS: In this retrospective, monocenter study, CT angiography collaterals (Tan score) and ASPECTS on acute and follow-up NCCT were evaluated by two raters. Additionally, a machine-learning algorithm evaluated the ASPECTS scale on the NCCT (e-ASPECTS). In this study 136 patients from 03/2015 to 12/2019 with occlusion of the main segment of the middle cerebral artery, with a defined symptom-onset-time and successful mechanical thrombectomy (MT) (modified treatment in cerebral infarction score mTICI = 2c or 3) were evaluated. RESULTS: Agreement between acute and follow-up ASPECTS were found to depend on OTI for both human (Intraclass correlation coefficient, ICC = 0.43 for OTI < 100 min, ICC = 0.57 for OTI 100–200 min, ICC = 0.81 for OTI ≥ 200 min) and machine-learning based ASPECTS evaluation (ICC = 0.24 for OTI < 100 min, ICC = 0.61 for OTI 100–200 min, ICC = 0.63 for OTI ≥ 200 min). The same applied to the interrater reliability. Collaterals were predictors of a favorable clinical outcome especially in hyperacute stroke with OTI < 100 min (collaterals: OR = 5.67 CI = 2.38–17.8, p < 0.001; ASPECTS: OR = 1.44, CI = 0.91–2.65, p = 0.15) while ASPECTS was in prolonged OTI ≥ 200 min (collaterals OR = 4.21,CI = 1.36–21.9, p = 0.03; ASPECTS: OR = 2.85, CI = 1.46–7.46, p = 0.01). CONCLUSION: The accuracy and reliability of NCCT-ASPECTS are time dependent for both human and machine-learning based evaluation, indicating reduced detectability of fast stroke progressors by NCCT. In hyperacute stroke, collateral status from CT-angiography may help for a better prognosis on clinical outcome and explain the occurrence of futile recanalization. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00062-021-01110-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.