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A Nomogram for Predicting Portal Hypertensive Gastropathy in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Analysis
BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for non-invasive methods for predicting portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG). This study aims to develop and validate a non-invasive method based on clinical parameters for predicting PHG in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). METHODS: The overall survival (OS) a...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8894675/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35252265 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2022.834159 |
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author | Wang, WenSheng Mu, ZhiYong Zhu, GuangXi Wang, Tao Lai, ShuJie Guo, Yan Yin, XinRu Wen, LiangZhi Chen, DongFeng |
author_facet | Wang, WenSheng Mu, ZhiYong Zhu, GuangXi Wang, Tao Lai, ShuJie Guo, Yan Yin, XinRu Wen, LiangZhi Chen, DongFeng |
author_sort | Wang, WenSheng |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for non-invasive methods for predicting portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG). This study aims to develop and validate a non-invasive method based on clinical parameters for predicting PHG in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). METHODS: The overall survival (OS) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-free survival were evaluated in LC patients, both with and without PHG. A prediction model for PHG was then constructed based on a training dataset that contained data on 492 LC patients. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the predicting nomogram were assessed using the C-index, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was conducted using a bootstrapping method, and further external validation using data on the 208 other patients. RESULTS: LC patients with PHG had a worse prognosis compared with those without PHG. A nomogram was constructed using clinical parameters, such as age, hemoglobin content, platelet count and Child-Pugh class. The C-index was 0.773 (95% CI: 0.730–0.816) in the training cohort, 0.761 after bootstrapping and 0.745 (95% CI: 0.673–0.817) in the validation cohort. The AUC values were 0.767, 0.724, and 0.756 in the training, validation and total cohorts, respectively. Well-fitted calibration curves were observed in the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful at a threshold of 15%. CONCLUSION: The nomogram constructed to predict the risk of developing PHG was found to be clinically viable. Furthermore, PHG is an independent risk factor for OS of LC, but not for the occurrence of HCC. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8894675 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-88946752022-03-05 A Nomogram for Predicting Portal Hypertensive Gastropathy in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Analysis Wang, WenSheng Mu, ZhiYong Zhu, GuangXi Wang, Tao Lai, ShuJie Guo, Yan Yin, XinRu Wen, LiangZhi Chen, DongFeng Front Med (Lausanne) Medicine BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for non-invasive methods for predicting portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG). This study aims to develop and validate a non-invasive method based on clinical parameters for predicting PHG in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). METHODS: The overall survival (OS) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-free survival were evaluated in LC patients, both with and without PHG. A prediction model for PHG was then constructed based on a training dataset that contained data on 492 LC patients. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the predicting nomogram were assessed using the C-index, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was conducted using a bootstrapping method, and further external validation using data on the 208 other patients. RESULTS: LC patients with PHG had a worse prognosis compared with those without PHG. A nomogram was constructed using clinical parameters, such as age, hemoglobin content, platelet count and Child-Pugh class. The C-index was 0.773 (95% CI: 0.730–0.816) in the training cohort, 0.761 after bootstrapping and 0.745 (95% CI: 0.673–0.817) in the validation cohort. The AUC values were 0.767, 0.724, and 0.756 in the training, validation and total cohorts, respectively. Well-fitted calibration curves were observed in the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful at a threshold of 15%. CONCLUSION: The nomogram constructed to predict the risk of developing PHG was found to be clinically viable. Furthermore, PHG is an independent risk factor for OS of LC, but not for the occurrence of HCC. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-02-18 /pmc/articles/PMC8894675/ /pubmed/35252265 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2022.834159 Text en Copyright © 2022 Wang, Mu, Zhu, Wang, Lai, Guo, Yin, Wen and Chen. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Medicine Wang, WenSheng Mu, ZhiYong Zhu, GuangXi Wang, Tao Lai, ShuJie Guo, Yan Yin, XinRu Wen, LiangZhi Chen, DongFeng A Nomogram for Predicting Portal Hypertensive Gastropathy in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Analysis |
title | A Nomogram for Predicting Portal Hypertensive Gastropathy in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Analysis |
title_full | A Nomogram for Predicting Portal Hypertensive Gastropathy in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Analysis |
title_fullStr | A Nomogram for Predicting Portal Hypertensive Gastropathy in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Analysis |
title_full_unstemmed | A Nomogram for Predicting Portal Hypertensive Gastropathy in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Analysis |
title_short | A Nomogram for Predicting Portal Hypertensive Gastropathy in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis: A Retrospective Analysis |
title_sort | nomogram for predicting portal hypertensive gastropathy in patients with liver cirrhosis: a retrospective analysis |
topic | Medicine |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8894675/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35252265 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2022.834159 |
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