The monocyte to lymphocyte ratio not only at baseline but also at relapse predicts poor outcomes in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma receiving locoregional therapy

BACKGROUND: Monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR) represents a pro-inflammatory immune microenvironment. The aim of this study was to elucidate the effect of MLR and subsequent MLR when relapse occurred (R-MLR) on prognosis for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with ablation. METHODS: A prospective analysis was conducted on 606 patients with HCC who were treated with TACE combined with local ablation in Beijing You’an Hospital affiliated to Capital Medical University from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2016. MLR or R-MLR were stratified according to the optimal cut-off values. The cumulative recurrence-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS) , and recurrence-death survival (RDS) rates were calculated by Kaplan–Meier method. The Cox proportion hazard model and logistic regression analysis was conducted to screen for independent predictive factors for indicating early relapse and long-term prognosis. RESULTS: High MLR was significantly associated with relapse, early recurrence, and overall survival. After a median follow-up of 59.4 months, The cumulative 1-, 3-, 5-year RFS rates of low MLR were 74.6%, 43.8%, and 34.0%; while 66.1%, 32.2%, and 22.6% for high group (P < 0.001). There were also significant differences in corresponding OS rates of the two groups (P = 0.003). The cumulative 1-, 3-, 5-year OS rates of low R-MLR were 99.5%, 87.2%, 75.5%; while 98.3%, 78.3%, 61.7% for high group (P < 0.001). There were also significant differences in corresponding RDS rates in the two groups (P = 0.008). 436 patients were divided into four groups on the base of cut-off values of MLR and R-MLR (low-low, low–high, high-low, and high-high). The low-low group has shown better outcomes including the cumulative 1-, 3-, 5-year OS, and RDS rates(P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: High MLR was related to unfavorable outcome. Subsequent change of MLR between baseline and HCC relapse could indicate poor long-term survival after relapse.