Different inflammatory blood markers correlate with specific outcomes in incident HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory blood markers have been associated with oncological outcomes in several cancers, but evidence for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is scanty. Therefore, this study aims at investigating the association between five different inflammatory blood markers and several oncological outcomes. METHODS: This multi-centre retrospective analysis included 925 consecutive patients with primary HPV-negative HNSCC (median age: 68 years) diagnosed between April 2004 and June 2018, whose pre-treatment blood parameters were available. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR), systemic inflammatory marker (SIM), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) were calculated; their associations with local, regional, and distant failure, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) was calculated. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 53 months. All five indexes were significantly associated with OS; the highest accuracy in predicting patients’ survival was found for SIM (10-year OS = 53.2% for SIM < 1.40 and 40.9% for SIM ≥ 2.46; c-index = 0.569) and LMR (10-year OS = 60.4% for LMR ≥ 3.76 and 40.5% for LMR < 2.92; c-index = 0.568). While LMR showed the strongest association with local failure (HR = 2.16; 95% CI:1.22–3.84), PLR showed the strongest association with regional (HR = 1.98; 95% CI:1.24–3.15) and distant failure (HR = 1.67; 95% CI:1.08–2.58). CONCLUSION: Different inflammatory blood markers may be useful to identify patients at risk of local, regional, or distant recurrences who may benefit from treatment intensification or intensive surveillance programs. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-09327-4.