Perioperative Serum Scoring Systems Predict Early Recurrence and Poor Prognosis of Resectable Pancreatic Cancer

OBJECTIVE: Some patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) are prone to rapid recurrence or metastasis after radical resection. However, evaluation methods for effectively identifying these patients are lacking. In this study, we established perioperative serum scoring systems to screen patients with early recurrence and poor prognosis. METHODS: We systematically analysed 44 perioperative serum parameters, including systemic inflammatory parameters, coagulation system parameters, tumor markers, and 18 clinicopathological characteristics of 218 patients with radical resection in our centre. Univariate Cox regression and LASSO regression models were used to screen variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to compare relapse-free survival and overall survival. Multivariate Cox regression was used to evaluate the independent risk variables. AUC and C-index were used to reveal the effectiveness of the models. In addition, the effectiveness was also verified in an independent cohort of 109 patients. RESULTS: Preoperative systemic immune coagulation cascade (SICC) (including increased neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, decreased lymphocyte to monocyte ratio, increased platelet and fibrinogen) and increased postoperative tumor markers (TMs) (CA199, CEA and CA242) were independent risk factors for early recurrence of resectable pancreatic cancer. On this basis, we established the preoperative SICC score and postoperative TMs score models. The patients with higher preoperative SICC or postoperative TMs score were more likely to have early relapse and worse prognosis. The nomogram based on preoperative SICC, postoperative TMs, CACI, smoking index, vascular cancer embolus and adjuvant chemotherapy can effectively evaluate the recurrence rate (AUC(1 year): 0.763, AUC(2 year): 0.679, AUC(3 year): 0.657) and overall survival rate (AUC(1 year): 0.770, AUC(3 year): 0.804, AUC(5 year): 0.763). CONCLUSION: Preoperative SICC and postoperative TMs can help identify resectable PDAC patients with early recurrence and poor prognosis.