Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model

Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy, which accounts for the vaccination campaign and the presence of new variants when they become domina...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Parolini, Nicola, Dede', Luca, Ardenghi, Giovanni, Quarteroni, Alfio
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2022
Materias:
Original Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8906164/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35284699
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.03.002
Descripción
Sumario:Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy, which accounts for the vaccination campaign and the presence of new variants when they become dominant. In particular, the specific features of the variants (e.g. their increased transmission rate) and vaccines (e.g. their efficacy to prevent transmission, hospitalization and death) are modeled, based on clinical evidence. The new model is validated comparing its near-future forecast capabilities with other epidemiological models and exploring different scenario analyses.

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