Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model

Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy, which accounts for the vaccination campaign and the presence of new variants when they become domina...

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Autores principales: Parolini, Nicola, Dede', Luca, Ardenghi, Giovanni, Quarteroni, Alfio
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2022
Materias:
Original Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8906164/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35284699
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.03.002
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author Parolini, Nicola
Dede', Luca
Ardenghi, Giovanni
Quarteroni, Alfio
author_facet Parolini, Nicola
Dede', Luca
Ardenghi, Giovanni
Quarteroni, Alfio
author_sort Parolini, Nicola
collection PubMed
description Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy, which accounts for the vaccination campaign and the presence of new variants when they become dominant. In particular, the specific features of the variants (e.g. their increased transmission rate) and vaccines (e.g. their efficacy to prevent transmission, hospitalization and death) are modeled, based on clinical evidence. The new model is validated comparing its near-future forecast capabilities with other epidemiological models and exploring different scenario analyses.
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spelling pubmed-89061642022-03-09 Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model Parolini, Nicola Dede', Luca Ardenghi, Giovanni Quarteroni, Alfio Infect Dis Model Original Research Article Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy, which accounts for the vaccination campaign and the presence of new variants when they become dominant. In particular, the specific features of the variants (e.g. their increased transmission rate) and vaccines (e.g. their efficacy to prevent transmission, hospitalization and death) are modeled, based on clinical evidence. The new model is validated comparing its near-future forecast capabilities with other epidemiological models and exploring different scenario analyses. KeAi Publishing 2022-03-09 /pmc/articles/PMC8906164/ /pubmed/35284699 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.03.002 Text en © 2022 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Original Research Article
Parolini, Nicola
Dede', Luca
Ardenghi, Giovanni
Quarteroni, Alfio
Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model
title Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model
title_full Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model
title_fullStr Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model
title_short Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model
title_sort modelling the covid-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in italy by the suihter model
topic Original Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8906164/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35284699
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.03.002
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