Cargando…
Impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading
The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been holding the world hostage for several years now. Mobility is key to viral spreading and its restriction is the main non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight the virus expansion. Previous works have shown a connection between the structural organization of ci...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2022
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8907266/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35264587 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06720-8 |
_version_ | 1784665602333343744 |
---|---|
author | Aguilar, Javier Bassolas, Aleix Ghoshal, Gourab Hazarie, Surendra Kirkley, Alec Mazzoli, Mattia Meloni, Sandro Mimar, Sayat Nicosia, Vincenzo Ramasco, José J. Sadilek, Adam |
author_facet | Aguilar, Javier Bassolas, Aleix Ghoshal, Gourab Hazarie, Surendra Kirkley, Alec Mazzoli, Mattia Meloni, Sandro Mimar, Sayat Nicosia, Vincenzo Ramasco, José J. Sadilek, Adam |
author_sort | Aguilar, Javier |
collection | PubMed |
description | The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been holding the world hostage for several years now. Mobility is key to viral spreading and its restriction is the main non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight the virus expansion. Previous works have shown a connection between the structural organization of cities and the movement patterns of their residents. This puts urban centers in the focus of epidemic surveillance and interventions. Here we show that the organization of urban flows has a tremendous impact on disease spreading and on the amenability of different mitigation strategies. By studying anonymous and aggregated intra-urban flows in a variety of cities in the United States and other countries, and a combination of empirical analysis and analytical methods, we demonstrate that the response of cities to epidemic spreading can be roughly classified in two major types according to the overall organization of those flows. Hierarchical cities, where flows are concentrated primarily between mobility hotspots, are particularly vulnerable to the rapid spread of epidemics. Nevertheless, mobility restrictions in such types of cities are very effective in mitigating the spread of a virus. Conversely, in sprawled cities which present many centers of activity, the spread of an epidemic is much slower, but the response to mobility restrictions is much weaker and less effective. Investing resources on early monitoring and prompt ad-hoc interventions in more vulnerable cities may prove helpful in containing and reducing the impact of future pandemics. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8907266 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-89072662022-03-11 Impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading Aguilar, Javier Bassolas, Aleix Ghoshal, Gourab Hazarie, Surendra Kirkley, Alec Mazzoli, Mattia Meloni, Sandro Mimar, Sayat Nicosia, Vincenzo Ramasco, José J. Sadilek, Adam Sci Rep Article The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been holding the world hostage for several years now. Mobility is key to viral spreading and its restriction is the main non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight the virus expansion. Previous works have shown a connection between the structural organization of cities and the movement patterns of their residents. This puts urban centers in the focus of epidemic surveillance and interventions. Here we show that the organization of urban flows has a tremendous impact on disease spreading and on the amenability of different mitigation strategies. By studying anonymous and aggregated intra-urban flows in a variety of cities in the United States and other countries, and a combination of empirical analysis and analytical methods, we demonstrate that the response of cities to epidemic spreading can be roughly classified in two major types according to the overall organization of those flows. Hierarchical cities, where flows are concentrated primarily between mobility hotspots, are particularly vulnerable to the rapid spread of epidemics. Nevertheless, mobility restrictions in such types of cities are very effective in mitigating the spread of a virus. Conversely, in sprawled cities which present many centers of activity, the spread of an epidemic is much slower, but the response to mobility restrictions is much weaker and less effective. Investing resources on early monitoring and prompt ad-hoc interventions in more vulnerable cities may prove helpful in containing and reducing the impact of future pandemics. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-03-09 /pmc/articles/PMC8907266/ /pubmed/35264587 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06720-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Aguilar, Javier Bassolas, Aleix Ghoshal, Gourab Hazarie, Surendra Kirkley, Alec Mazzoli, Mattia Meloni, Sandro Mimar, Sayat Nicosia, Vincenzo Ramasco, José J. Sadilek, Adam Impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading |
title | Impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading |
title_full | Impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading |
title_fullStr | Impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading |
title_full_unstemmed | Impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading |
title_short | Impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading |
title_sort | impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8907266/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35264587 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06720-8 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT aguilarjavier impactofurbanstructureoninfectiousdiseasespreading AT bassolasaleix impactofurbanstructureoninfectiousdiseasespreading AT ghoshalgourab impactofurbanstructureoninfectiousdiseasespreading AT hazariesurendra impactofurbanstructureoninfectiousdiseasespreading AT kirkleyalec impactofurbanstructureoninfectiousdiseasespreading AT mazzolimattia impactofurbanstructureoninfectiousdiseasespreading AT melonisandro impactofurbanstructureoninfectiousdiseasespreading AT mimarsayat impactofurbanstructureoninfectiousdiseasespreading AT nicosiavincenzo impactofurbanstructureoninfectiousdiseasespreading AT ramascojosej impactofurbanstructureoninfectiousdiseasespreading AT sadilekadam impactofurbanstructureoninfectiousdiseasespreading |