The Future of the COVID-19 Pandemic: How Good (or Bad) Can the SARS-CoV2 Spike Protein Get?

Severe acute respiratory syndrome virus 2 (SARS-CoV2) has infected an estimated 400 million people world-wide, causing approximately 6 million deaths from severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The SARS-CoV2 Spike protein plays a critical role in viral attachment and entry into host cells. The recent emergence of highly transmissible variants of SARS-CoV2 has been linked to mutations in Spike. This review provides an overview of the structure and function of Spike and describes the factors that impact Spike’s ability to mediate viral infection as well as the potential limits to how good (or bad) Spike protein can become. Proposed here is a framework that considers the processes of Spike-mediated SARS-CoV2 attachment, dissociation, and cell entry where the role of Spike, from the standpoint of the virus, is to maximize cell entry with each viral-cell collision. Key parameters are identified that will be needed to develop models to identify mechanisms that new Spike variants might exploit to enhance viral transmission. In particular, the importance of considering secondary co-receptors for Spike, such as heparan sulfate proteoglycans is discussed. Accurate models of Spike-cell interactions could contribute to the development of new therapies in advance of the emergence of new highly transmissible SARS-CoV2 variants.