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Using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models to Estimate Exposure Lag-Response Associations between Long-Term Air Pollution Exposure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease

Long-term air pollution exposure increases the risk for cardiovascular disease, but little is known about the temporal relationships between exposure and health outcomes. This study aims to estimate the exposure-lag response between air pollution exposure and risk for ischemic heart disease (IHD) an...

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Autores principales: Kriit, Hedi Katre, Andersson, Eva M., Carlsen, Hanne K., Andersson, Niklas, Ljungman, Petter L. S., Pershagen, Göran, Segersson, David, Eneroth, Kristina, Gidhagen, Lars, Spanne, Mårten, Molnar, Peter, Wennberg, Patrik, Rosengren, Annika, Rizzuto, Debora, Leander, Karin, Yacamán-Méndez, Diego, Magnusson, Patrik K. E., Forsberg, Bertil, Stockfelt, Leo, Sommar, Johan N.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8909720/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35270332
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19052630
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author Kriit, Hedi Katre
Andersson, Eva M.
Carlsen, Hanne K.
Andersson, Niklas
Ljungman, Petter L. S.
Pershagen, Göran
Segersson, David
Eneroth, Kristina
Gidhagen, Lars
Spanne, Mårten
Molnar, Peter
Wennberg, Patrik
Rosengren, Annika
Rizzuto, Debora
Leander, Karin
Yacamán-Méndez, Diego
Magnusson, Patrik K. E.
Forsberg, Bertil
Stockfelt, Leo
Sommar, Johan N.
author_facet Kriit, Hedi Katre
Andersson, Eva M.
Carlsen, Hanne K.
Andersson, Niklas
Ljungman, Petter L. S.
Pershagen, Göran
Segersson, David
Eneroth, Kristina
Gidhagen, Lars
Spanne, Mårten
Molnar, Peter
Wennberg, Patrik
Rosengren, Annika
Rizzuto, Debora
Leander, Karin
Yacamán-Méndez, Diego
Magnusson, Patrik K. E.
Forsberg, Bertil
Stockfelt, Leo
Sommar, Johan N.
author_sort Kriit, Hedi Katre
collection PubMed
description Long-term air pollution exposure increases the risk for cardiovascular disease, but little is known about the temporal relationships between exposure and health outcomes. This study aims to estimate the exposure-lag response between air pollution exposure and risk for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke incidence by applying distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs). Annual mean concentrations of particles with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM(2.5)) and black carbon (BC) were estimated for participants in five Swedish cohorts using dispersion models. Simultaneous estimates of exposure lags 1–10 years using DLNMs were compared with separate year specific (single lag) estimates and estimates for lag 1–5- and 6–10-years using moving average exposure. The DLNM estimated no exposure lag-response between PM(2.5) total, BC, and IHD. However, for PM(2.5) from local sources, a 20% risk increase per 1 µg/m(3) for 1-year lag was estimated. A risk increase for stroke was suggested in relation to lags 2–4-year PM(2.5) and BC, and also lags 8–9-years BC. No associations were shown in single lag models. Increased risk estimates for stroke in relation to lag 1–5- and 6–10-years BC moving averages were observed. Estimates generally supported a greater contribution to increased risk from exposure windows closer in time to incident IHD and incident stroke.
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spelling pubmed-89097202022-03-11 Using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models to Estimate Exposure Lag-Response Associations between Long-Term Air Pollution Exposure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease Kriit, Hedi Katre Andersson, Eva M. Carlsen, Hanne K. Andersson, Niklas Ljungman, Petter L. S. Pershagen, Göran Segersson, David Eneroth, Kristina Gidhagen, Lars Spanne, Mårten Molnar, Peter Wennberg, Patrik Rosengren, Annika Rizzuto, Debora Leander, Karin Yacamán-Méndez, Diego Magnusson, Patrik K. E. Forsberg, Bertil Stockfelt, Leo Sommar, Johan N. Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Long-term air pollution exposure increases the risk for cardiovascular disease, but little is known about the temporal relationships between exposure and health outcomes. This study aims to estimate the exposure-lag response between air pollution exposure and risk for ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke incidence by applying distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs). Annual mean concentrations of particles with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM(2.5)) and black carbon (BC) were estimated for participants in five Swedish cohorts using dispersion models. Simultaneous estimates of exposure lags 1–10 years using DLNMs were compared with separate year specific (single lag) estimates and estimates for lag 1–5- and 6–10-years using moving average exposure. The DLNM estimated no exposure lag-response between PM(2.5) total, BC, and IHD. However, for PM(2.5) from local sources, a 20% risk increase per 1 µg/m(3) for 1-year lag was estimated. A risk increase for stroke was suggested in relation to lags 2–4-year PM(2.5) and BC, and also lags 8–9-years BC. No associations were shown in single lag models. Increased risk estimates for stroke in relation to lag 1–5- and 6–10-years BC moving averages were observed. Estimates generally supported a greater contribution to increased risk from exposure windows closer in time to incident IHD and incident stroke. MDPI 2022-02-24 /pmc/articles/PMC8909720/ /pubmed/35270332 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19052630 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Kriit, Hedi Katre
Andersson, Eva M.
Carlsen, Hanne K.
Andersson, Niklas
Ljungman, Petter L. S.
Pershagen, Göran
Segersson, David
Eneroth, Kristina
Gidhagen, Lars
Spanne, Mårten
Molnar, Peter
Wennberg, Patrik
Rosengren, Annika
Rizzuto, Debora
Leander, Karin
Yacamán-Méndez, Diego
Magnusson, Patrik K. E.
Forsberg, Bertil
Stockfelt, Leo
Sommar, Johan N.
Using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models to Estimate Exposure Lag-Response Associations between Long-Term Air Pollution Exposure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease
title Using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models to Estimate Exposure Lag-Response Associations between Long-Term Air Pollution Exposure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease
title_full Using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models to Estimate Exposure Lag-Response Associations between Long-Term Air Pollution Exposure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease
title_fullStr Using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models to Estimate Exposure Lag-Response Associations between Long-Term Air Pollution Exposure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease
title_full_unstemmed Using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models to Estimate Exposure Lag-Response Associations between Long-Term Air Pollution Exposure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease
title_short Using Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models to Estimate Exposure Lag-Response Associations between Long-Term Air Pollution Exposure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease
title_sort using distributed lag non-linear models to estimate exposure lag-response associations between long-term air pollution exposure and incidence of cardiovascular disease
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8909720/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35270332
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19052630
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