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External validation of risk prediction platforms for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy using nomograms and artificial intelligence

PURPOSE: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a life-threatening complication following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). We previously developed nomogram- and artificial intelligence (AI)-based risk prediction platforms for POPF after PD. This study aims to externally validate these platforms. METH...

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Autores principales: Yoon, So Jeong, Kwon, Wooil, Lee, Ok Joo, Jung, Ji Hye, Shin, Yong Chan, Lim, Chang-Sup, Kim, Hongbeom, Jang, Jin-Young, Shin, Sang Hyun, Heo, Jin Seok, Han, In Woong
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Korean Surgical Society 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8914522/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35317357
http://dx.doi.org/10.4174/astr.2022.102.3.147
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author Yoon, So Jeong
Kwon, Wooil
Lee, Ok Joo
Jung, Ji Hye
Shin, Yong Chan
Lim, Chang-Sup
Kim, Hongbeom
Jang, Jin-Young
Shin, Sang Hyun
Heo, Jin Seok
Han, In Woong
author_facet Yoon, So Jeong
Kwon, Wooil
Lee, Ok Joo
Jung, Ji Hye
Shin, Yong Chan
Lim, Chang-Sup
Kim, Hongbeom
Jang, Jin-Young
Shin, Sang Hyun
Heo, Jin Seok
Han, In Woong
author_sort Yoon, So Jeong
collection PubMed
description PURPOSE: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a life-threatening complication following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). We previously developed nomogram- and artificial intelligence (AI)-based risk prediction platforms for POPF after PD. This study aims to externally validate these platforms. METHODS: Between January 2007 and December 2016, a total of 1,576 patients who underwent PD in Seoul National University Hospital, Ilsan Paik Hospital, and Boramae Medical Center were retrospectively reviewed. The individual risk scores for POPF were calculated using each platform by Samsung Medical Center. The predictive ability was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under the curve (AUC). The optimal predictive value was obtained via backward elimination in accordance with the results from the AI development process. RESULTS: The AUC of the nomogram after external validation was 0.679 (P < 0.001). The values of AUC after backward elimination in the AI model varied from 0.585 to 0.672. A total of 13 risk factors represented the maximal AUC of 0.672 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: We performed external validation of previously developed platforms for predicting POPF. Further research is needed to investigate other potential risk factors and thereby improve the predictability of the platform.
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spelling pubmed-89145222022-03-21 External validation of risk prediction platforms for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy using nomograms and artificial intelligence Yoon, So Jeong Kwon, Wooil Lee, Ok Joo Jung, Ji Hye Shin, Yong Chan Lim, Chang-Sup Kim, Hongbeom Jang, Jin-Young Shin, Sang Hyun Heo, Jin Seok Han, In Woong Ann Surg Treat Res Original Article PURPOSE: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a life-threatening complication following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). We previously developed nomogram- and artificial intelligence (AI)-based risk prediction platforms for POPF after PD. This study aims to externally validate these platforms. METHODS: Between January 2007 and December 2016, a total of 1,576 patients who underwent PD in Seoul National University Hospital, Ilsan Paik Hospital, and Boramae Medical Center were retrospectively reviewed. The individual risk scores for POPF were calculated using each platform by Samsung Medical Center. The predictive ability was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under the curve (AUC). The optimal predictive value was obtained via backward elimination in accordance with the results from the AI development process. RESULTS: The AUC of the nomogram after external validation was 0.679 (P < 0.001). The values of AUC after backward elimination in the AI model varied from 0.585 to 0.672. A total of 13 risk factors represented the maximal AUC of 0.672 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: We performed external validation of previously developed platforms for predicting POPF. Further research is needed to investigate other potential risk factors and thereby improve the predictability of the platform. The Korean Surgical Society 2022-03 2022-03-04 /pmc/articles/PMC8914522/ /pubmed/35317357 http://dx.doi.org/10.4174/astr.2022.102.3.147 Text en Copyright © 2022, the Korean Surgical Society https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/Annals of Surgical Treatment and Research is an Open Access Journal. All articles are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) ) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Article
Yoon, So Jeong
Kwon, Wooil
Lee, Ok Joo
Jung, Ji Hye
Shin, Yong Chan
Lim, Chang-Sup
Kim, Hongbeom
Jang, Jin-Young
Shin, Sang Hyun
Heo, Jin Seok
Han, In Woong
External validation of risk prediction platforms for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy using nomograms and artificial intelligence
title External validation of risk prediction platforms for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy using nomograms and artificial intelligence
title_full External validation of risk prediction platforms for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy using nomograms and artificial intelligence
title_fullStr External validation of risk prediction platforms for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy using nomograms and artificial intelligence
title_full_unstemmed External validation of risk prediction platforms for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy using nomograms and artificial intelligence
title_short External validation of risk prediction platforms for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy using nomograms and artificial intelligence
title_sort external validation of risk prediction platforms for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy using nomograms and artificial intelligence
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8914522/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35317357
http://dx.doi.org/10.4174/astr.2022.102.3.147
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