The role of current transport expenditure in mitigating the risk of modal shift during Covid-19 – Lessons from Polish cities

This article shows that current expenditure allocated by local authorities for the routine maintenance of public transport (i.e., providing passengers with clean and frequent services) is crucial to effectively limit the modal shift from public transit to private cars during the Covid-19 pandemic. In our analysis, we define public transport as the bus, tram, metro and trolley operations which are ordered and funded by 11 local authorities in Poland; we also assume that the modal shift is reflected in the growth of traffic congestion. Taking into account these assumptions and considering the long-term financial data from 2010 to 2020, we then conduct hierarchical linear regression and state that cities with a higher share of current expenses in cities’ total annual transport expenditure have registered during the pandemic a lower number of weeks with congestion level exceeding the pre-pandemic level. We argue that this is due to the allocation of current expenditure to cleaning services and the transport service supply, which could have a significant impact on perceptions of crowding and safety on public transport. Both issues belong to the essential determinants of the quality of public transport services and could play a key role in mitigating the modal shift by reducing the fear of catching Covid-19. In contrast to this finding, we also show that investment expenditure (allocated to improvements of transport infrastructure) does not have a similar impact on the congestion during the pandemic. In this context, we emphasise that cutting spending on cleaning services and the transport supply service as a response to the reduced number of passengers would be more devastating for public transport than postponing new infrastructure investments. Based on the results achieved in the analysis, we provide recommendations for local authorities that can help implement new funding models and reframe local transport policy, namely: (1) close the funding gap resulting from lower revenues to local budgets, (2) provide resources for maintaining the infrastructure investments and adapting them to a “new normality”, (3) maintain the attractiveness of public transport post-Covid.