Network analytics and machine learning for predicting length of stay in elderly patients with chronic diseases at point of admission

BACKGROUND: An aging population with a burden of chronic diseases puts increasing pressure on health care systems. Early prediction of the hospital length of stay (LOS) can be useful in optimizing the allocation of medical resources, and improving healthcare quality. However, the data available at the point of admission (PoA) are limited, making it difficult to forecast the LOS accurately. METHODS: In this study, we proposed a novel approach combining network analytics and machine learning to predict the LOS in elderly patients with chronic diseases at the PoA. Two networks, including multimorbidity network (MN) and patient similarity network (PSN), were constructed and novel network features were created. Five machine learning models (eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, Random Forest, Linear Support Vector Machine, and Deep Neural Network) with different input feature sets were developed to compare their performance. RESULTS: The experimental results indicated that the network features can bring significant improvements to the performances of the prediction models, suggesting that the MN and PSN are useful for LOS predictions. CONCLUSION: Our predictive framework which integrates network science with data mining can forecast the LOS effectively at the PoA and provide decision support for hospital managers, which highlights the potential value of network-based machine learning in healthcare field.