Acute exacerbation of rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease: mortality and its prediction model

BACKGROUND: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD), like those with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), might develop an unexpected acute exacerbation (AE)—a rapidly progressing and deadly respiratory decline. Although AE incidence and risk factors in RA-ILD patients are known, their post-AE clinical course remains unknown owing to the rarity of AE-RA-ILD. This multicentre retrospective study evaluated post-AE mortality and prognostic variables in AE-RA-ILD patients and created a mortality prediction model for AE-RA-ILD. METHODS: This research comprised 58 patients with AE-RA-ILD and 96 with AE-IPF (a control disease). Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify prognostic variables. A prediction model was created with recursive partitioning (decision tree). RESULTS: The post-AE 90-day mortality rate in the overall AE-RA-ILD group was 48.3%; percent predicted forced vital capacity within 12 months before AE onset (baseline %FVC) and PaO(2)/FiO(2) ratio at AE onset (P/F at AE) were independent predictors of mortality. Post-AE 90-day mortality rates were 40.6% and 43.8%, respectively, in AE-RA-ILD and AE-IPF patients propensity score-matched for age, sex, baseline %FVC and P/F at AE (P = 1.0000). In AE-RA-ILD patients, C-indices of baseline %FVC and P/F at AE to predict post-AE 90-day mortality were 0.604 and 0.623, respectively. A decision tree model based on these prognostic factors classified AE-RA-ILD patients into mild, moderate and severe groups (post-AE 90-day mortality rates: 20.8%, 64.0% and 88.9%, respectively; P = 0.0002); the C-index improved to 0.775. CONCLUSIONS: Post-AE mortality was high in AE-RA-ILD patients similar to AE-IPF patients. The discovered prognostic factors and our mortality prediction model may aid in the management of AE-RA-ILD patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12931-022-01978-y.