A novel inflammation-related prognostic biomarker for predicting the disease-free survival of patients with colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND: To develop and evaluate the prognostic value of a comprehensive inflammatory biomarker for postoperative colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. METHODS: A total of 646 CRC patients were recruited between August 2017 and December 2019 from Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, with follow-up data up to 2021. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method (LASSO) was used to select inflammation indicators in order to construct a comprehensive biomarker (named NSAP). The Cox regression model was utilized to analyze the association between the NSAP and the disease-free survival (DFS) of CRC. Predictive performance and clinical utility of prognostic models were evaluated by area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analyses (DCAs). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 23 months, 95 clinical outcomes were observed, with a 1-year survival rate is 89.47%. A comprehensive inflammatory biomarker (NSAP) was established based on four blood indicators (including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), neutrophil×monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (SIRI), albumin-to-globulin ratio (AGR), and platelet-to-lymphocytes ratio (PLR)). Patients with a lower NSAP had significantly associated with better DFS of CRC (HR=0.53, 95%CI 0.32–0.89). Moreover, compared to a previously established model, the traditional TNM staging system or/and tumor markers, the nomogram based on NSAP displayed more excellent predictive ability (0.752 vs 0.597, 0.711 and 0.735, P < 0.05). DCAs also demonstrated that the established nomogram had better utility for decision making. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that NSAP may be a useful comprehensive prognostic biomarker for predicting the DFS of CRC patients. The nomogram based on NSAP can be considered a valuable tool to estimate the prognosis of patients with CRC. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12957-022-02550-0.